Opinion Express View on El Nino: For India, the possibility of a sub-normal monsoon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a normal southwest monsoon, with aggregate rainfall for the country at 96 per cent of the historical long-period average over June-September. The prognosis — rainfall within 96-104 per cent of the average is considered “normal” — assumes El Niño occurring only towards the second half of the season. But the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest alert predicts the phenomenon to develop by May-July. That would be in the first half itself. The IMD is basically counting on El Niño’s impact being neutralised by “positive” Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions developing during the season. To the extent a positive IOD — warmer temperatures in the Arabian Sea waters relative to that in the eastern Indian Ocean — cancels a weak El Niño, as it happened in 2006, the monsoon could well turn out “normal”.

However, these are early days. A clearer picture, including of El Niño and IOD, would emerge by end-May, when the IMD will also issue its second-stage forecast. It’s advisable for both the Centre and state governments to assume a sub-normal monsoon this time. The statistical probability of that is itself high, given the four consecutive years of good monsoons and overall rainfall from 2019 to 2022. The time between now and the start of the season should be used for contingency planning that factors in different scenarios — from the monsoon’s delayed onset to its failure in the second half. Thankfully, global food and fertiliser prices aren’t on fire, unlike a year ago. Government wheat stocks, at 8.35 million tonnes (mt) on April 1, are at a six-year-low and a tad above the minimum required 7.46 mt for this date. But with rice stocks at 43.38 mt, more than thrice the normative level, the situation is manageable.

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The government must, to start with, keep a close watch on wheat procurement. If that is low, indicative of significant crop damage from the recent unseasonal rains, it should lose no time in allowing imports. While building adequate public stocks of rice, wheat or pulses is prudent from a supply-side management standpoint, the same purpose is achieved by keeping duties low for the private trade to also import. A regime of low import duties with no export bans or restrictions is preferable for all time; that general rule should apply no less in times of shortages, whether current or anticipated. Sophisticated weather models, proactive trade policy and improved irrigation, transport and other infrastructure should make it easier to deal with monsoon failures.