Opinion Express View on delay of Consumption Expenditure Surveys, census: Let data flow

That India is on course to surpass China as the most populous country in the world in a few months is based on a projection in the State of World Population report 2023. However, India’s own census enumeration exercise which was meant to take place in 2021 has now been postponed to 2024-25. Similarly, results of the National Statistical Office’s consumption expenditure survey 2022-23, likely to be available by December this year, may now be released only after the general elections in 2024. Coming after the 2017-18 consumption expenditure survey was junked by the government due to “quality issues”, such reports only lend credence to the charge of growing interference in the country’s statistical system.

Data collected by the government provides an understanding of various facets and phenomena across sectors. For instance, the utility of the consumption expenditure data is not limited to estimating poverty and inequality. These surveys are also used for rebasing GDP and CPI. In the absence of such surveys, reliance on other datasets only increases. However, at times, these tend to send contradictory signals. For instance, with no recent consumption expenditure survey, there is little consensus on the trends in poverty and inequality over the past decade. Attempting to fill the void, several economists have put forth their estimates. However, these estimates are based on different data sources — from surveys carried out by CMIE to the periodic labour force surveys — and present differing assessments. For example, Arvind Panagariya and Vishal More have found that rural poverty saw only a modest rise during the strict lockdown of April-June 2020, declining sharply thereafter. On the other hand, the “State of working India 2021” by Azim Premji University estimated a sharp increase in poverty during the pandemic.

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Data that is accurate and timely forms the bedrock of policy-making. While postponing the Census exercise was perhaps understandable in the initial months of the pandemic, the continued delay is difficult to justify. The absence of such data also impinges on the ability of policymakers to make well-judged choices. Junking the data collected, delaying its collection and release only raises further questions over the credibility of the statistical system. Such missteps need to be avoided. Measures need to be taken to strengthen the statistical system and safeguard its independence.