Opinion Erratic Trump and emboldened Putin: Why ending Ukraine war is so complex

Days after brokering a fragile ceasefire in West Asia, US President Donald Trump has turned his attention once again to Eastern Europe. His stance on the ongoing three-and-a-half-year war has swung like a pendulum. In February, the Oval Office spat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was followed by threats of sanctions against Moscow. Then at the Alaska Summit in August, Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin and appeared to align himself with the Kremlin’s position — particularly Putin’s demand that Ukraine cede unoccupied parts of the Donbas region in exchange for a ceasefire. Subsequently, Trump threw his weight behind Kyiv and speculated in September that Ukraine could take back all of its territory and “maybe even go further than that”. He even expressed openness to the idea of supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. Now, there is yet another reversal. Following a lengthy call with Putin last week and a meeting with Zelenskyy on Friday, Trump has urged Kyiv and Moscow to “stop where they are”, suggested that the war should end by allowing the Donbas region to “be cut the way it is” (leaving most of it under Russian control), and rejected Zelenskyy’s request for the Tomahawks.

Trump’s inconsistency is all-too-familiar and yet disquieting, not just for Ukraine, but also for Europe. Over the past six weeks, Russia has sent drones over Poland and Romania, flown fighter jets into Estonian airspace, and is accused of orchestrating drone flights that disrupted airports in Denmark, Belgium, and Germany — allegations Moscow has denied. At the time, Trump expressed clear solidarity with NATO, declaring that it should shoot down Russian aircraft violating its airspace. Now, as the US president again presses Ukraine to make concessions, it will be up to Europe to ensure that, in the event of a deal, robust security assurances are provided to Ukraine.

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An erratic Trump and an emboldened Putin illustrate the challenges that lie ahead in ending the war. Trump has reportedly agreed to hold another summit in Hungary — an EU member that opposes Ukraine’s accession and is led by the pro-Putin Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Once again, it appears that Ukraine and Europe are being sidelined, with Washington positioning itself as the arbiter of war and peace. If this trend continues, and given the US president’s current stance, the day may not be far when Ukraine is left with little choice but to yield to Trump’s terms and compromise on its territory. To avert that scenario, Europe will need to act quickly.