Opinion Enthusiasm for next month’s COP30 is low. But it remains our best bet

New data from the World Meteorological Organisation has revealed that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere jumped by a record amount in 2024 to touch a new high. Ten years of the Paris Agreement have not brought any significant slowdown in the global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory. Global CO2 emissions have actually increased from about 39.6 billion tonnes to about 41.6 billion tonnes during this time. Under Donald Trump, the US has pulled out of the Paris Agreement once again, while developing countries are increasingly disillusioned with this process. Next month’s COP30 meeting in Belem, Brazil, is being held at a time when interest and enthusiasm in this annual climate conference are at a low level.

The meeting is unlikely to deliver an outcome that can address the urgent needs of enhanced climate action in any meaningful manner. Even the stated objective of hosts Brazil is to try to keep the countries invested in this multilateral process despite the severe underperformance. Yet, this is still the only hope for climate action at the global level. From an Indian perspective, the interest would mainly be around the Nationally-Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plan, which India is expected to release in the run-up to, or during, the COP30 meeting. The NDCs will contain India’s climate targets for 2035, building upon its pledges for 2030, while the NAP, India’s first, would have a detailed overview of the adaptation measures the country is taking to deal with climate change. Considering that other countries, including China, the world’s largest emitter, have put forward relatively modest climate targets in their 2035 NDCs, India’s own NDCs are unlikely to promise anything ambitious.

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While India would be justified to keep its international climate commitments commensurate with what other countries bring to the table, it is in its own interest to be aggressive in dealing with the climate crisis. Faster development and deployment of clean energy has the potential for a technology leapfrog across sectors, which is critical for increasing productivity and driving economic growth. It will also enable Indian industry to be globally competitive. At the same time, minimising the adverse impacts of extreme weather events would be a prerequisite for reaching where India wants to be economically in 2047. Climate action also offers an opportunity for India to seek leadership of the Global South. It was mainly with this intention that New Delhi had created institutions like the International Solar Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster-Resilient Infrastructure. Their full potential is still to be leveraged. This needs to change quickly.