Opinion Bad weather ahead
El Nino prediction is worrying. It should spur a search for long-term solutions.
El Nino prediction is worrying. It should spur a search for long-term solutions.
The met department last week confirmed fears that the monsoon could be below normal — 95 per cent of the long-period average — because of the El Nino weather phenomenon, a prediction confirmed by other international weather bureaus. Though not every El Nino year is a drought year and much will depend on the ultimate geographic distribution of rainfall, El Nino, which doesn’t allow rain-bearing clouds to form and has, in the last decade alone, been responsible for droughts in 2002, 2004 and 2009, is a major cause of worry because of its potential effect on food inflation. Both wholesale and consumer price index food inflation were above 9 per cent in March.
Poor rainfall will exacerbate this as it will not only affect the kharif but also the rabi crop due to the lack of adequate moisture in the soil. The incoming government should seriously consider offloading some of its foodgrain stock as a short-term solution to blunting cereal inflation. The long-term solution lies in operationalising some big-ticket ideas.
At 48 million tonnes, India’s foodgrain stocks are more than double what it needs to maintain and can easily be deployed to tackle cereal inflation. But this may not be the main front on which the government will need to fight. North India, where most cereal is grown, is relatively well irrigated and the reservoirs have a third more water than they did this time last year.
On the other hand, the prices of vegetables, oilseeds and pulses, mostly grown in poorly irrigated western India, may come under particular pressure due to a failed monsoon. Given that 55 per cent of edible oil consumed in India is imported and El Nino may also hit production centres in Southeast Asia, a rethink of the 10 per cent import duty may also be necessary.
For the long haul, the incoming government should consolidate the headway made on GM crops — particularly drought and flood resistant varieties. There’s no reason why the irrigation network of north India can’t be replicated in other parts of the country (currently, only 45 per cent of agricultural land is irrigated). Cold storage and food processing infrastructure must also be encouraged and the clear way to do this is to revamp the retail FDI policy. We need to both reduce our dependence on the monsoons and devise ways to maximise the utility of the resources that we do have.
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