Opinion Why reduction in manpower is bad for the Indian Army

Cuts in the army are ad hoc without a strategic defence and security review

No recruitment in the last three years in the Army alone has created voids amounting to 1,80,000 personnel. (File)

Ashok K Mehta

May 30, 2023 09:32 AM IST First published on: May 29, 2023 at 07:08 PM IST

Two big ideas are being pushed by politicians and bureaucrats though masked as initiatives of the Armed Forces — right-sizing and Atmanirbharta. Both are consequences of the OROP that no country in the world follows. Both are skewed. OROP was not a thought-through enterprise. Prime Minister Narendra Modi adopted it for short-term electoral gains. Its long-term cost is staggering: OROP’s annual bill exceeds funds allotted for modernisation. Last year, the five-year equaliser in OROP led to an increase of Rs 25,000 crore, which forced the government to appeal to the Supreme Court. The revenue account compared to capital is so heavily skewed in favour of the former that the government had to look at reducing manpower. Ironically, Covid19 became a government ally in the mission.

For a full two-and-a-half years till June 2022, no recruitment was done. Recruitment rallies were just as feasible as were holding elections or religious congregations like the Kumbh mela. Meanwhile, the government was working on the much-maligned Agniveer scheme, which intended to kill two birds with one stone — reduce manpower and pension bills. When Agniveer was announced last year, politicians stayed in the background and fired from the military’s shoulders.

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A former three-star general recently explained the mounting manpower deficiencies thus: No recruitment in the last three years in the Army alone has created voids amounting to 1,80,000 personnel. The savings on salary bill as well as pensions are significant. Agniveer recruitment commenced in June 2022 with the intake of 40,000 soldiers, while 70,000 soldiers continued to retire. The adverse impact of zero recruitment and personnel retiring being constant for nearly three years on combat units was very serious. Many of the soldiers were deployed against the Chinese PLA in Ladakh. But no one raised a voice.

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Civilians assume there will be no war. Manpower deficiency has hurt Gorkha regiments the most as no recruitment has taken place this year also since the government in Nepal is unable to decide on the Agniveer scheme. It prefers the old system of 15 years recruitment plus pension. That decision has been deferred to Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s visit to India on May 31. Dahal is likely to urge PM Modi to exempt Nepal from Agniveer. A suspension or termination of Gorkha recruitment from Nepal will have profound strategic consequences.

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2023 is the year of transformation in the Army. The buzzword is “rightsizing”, not downsizing. An additional 1,00,000 personnel will be reduced on top of the 1,80,000 existing shortfall. Last month, the Headquarters Integrated Defence Staff ordered a 10 per cent cut in manpower across the force. These cuts are ad hoc sans a strategic defence and security review.

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One reason for the dilution of manpower in the Army is the considerably improved insurgency situation in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly south of Banihal. In December 2022, DG J&K Police Dilbagh Singh claimed that “all districts of Jammu have been freed from militancy except one district where three to four terrorists operate”. On April 20, an RR truck was ambushed on Jammu-Poonch highway and another incident occurred two weeks later. Together, 10 soldiers were killed. At least two Rashtriya Rifles sectors were redeployed from Jammu to Ladakh. RR battalions, which have six rifle companies, are likely to be reduced to four companies and RR sector headquarters have been removed with RR sectors operating directly under Corps headquarters.

In the Northeast, two mountain divisions fighting insurgency have been relieved and the counter-insurgency mission is now with the Assam Rifles. This was an old plan that could not be implemented as the Army was reluctant to hand over CIS duties to paramilitaries lest insurgency gets a leg up. The Manipur ethnic conflict is a warning. Still, it is one thing to relieve the Army of its secondary responsibility of aid to civil power, but quite another to reduce its combat strength when it is not compensated with state-of-the-art equipment.

The writer is a retired Major General of the Indian Army