Opinion The weather report: Why getting it right is important for India

Accurately predicting rain, cyclones, heatwaves and drought are also critical to informed decision-making on disaster management. In India, the Indian Meteorology Department (IMD) is the principal government agency in all matters relating to meteorology and it specialises in the incredibly complex science of predicting weather patterns by observing, modelling and interpreting several variables.

However, in tropical countries like India, weather variability is inherently higher. IMD’s forecasts have improved vastly in the last few years as it has upgraded to technologies similar to the ones used by the US, UK and Japan — these countries are known to produce accurate forecasts. Yet, there are still many days and geographies for which Indian forecasts go wrong, especially during the winter and monsoon.

One of the major hurdles is the lack of weather monitoring ground stations. Currently, IMD operates around 800 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), 1,500 Automatic Rain Gauges (ARG) and 37 Doppler Weather Radar (DWR). This is against the total requirements of more than three lakh ground stations (AWS/ARG) and around 70 DWR. It’s interesting to note that several Indian state governments and private companies operate a significant network of ground stations (more than 20,000), many of which are not currently used by IMD. The factors range from the inaccessibility of the data to their reliability.

Currently, most of the prediction software used in forecasting is based on the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, both of which are not the most modern. In contrast, with the government’s focus on Make in India, its support to start-ups and the huge public and private investments in the sectors of agriculture and climate, many new-age companies are switching to Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) for predictions. At the same time, though, these technologies are only as good and verifiable as the data they can access. Thus, there is an urgent need for an integrated system to fill these data gaps. New ground stations will have to be installed and the available data has to be shared seamlessly.

A promising step forward was that recently, the Department of Agriculture & Farmer Welfare (DA&FW) and the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare (MoA&FW) initiated the Weather Information Network and Data System (WINDS) to generate long-term, hyper-local weather data. The system will also promote the use of its data for wider applications in agriculture and other sectors, help in creating a national-level database and assist in establishing the protocols required to access the country-wide data by various public and private bodies. Under this programme, more than two lakh ground stations (AWS and ARG) will be installed, which can help tremendously in enhancing weather data utilisation and improving weather predictions and decision making.

Meanwhile, air pollution continues to be a challenge. In the last month, large numbers of flights and trains were delayed in North India because dense fog blanketed the NCR region, leading to near-zero visibility. This happens mainly because of the high particulate matter and smog in the atmosphere. Fog can trap the pollutants close to the ground, leading to an increase in respiratory and other health-related issues. Another cause for worry is that in foggy conditions, some pollutants like Nitrogen Oxides can react with other compounds to form secondary pollutants, thus posing severe health risks, particularly to children and the elderly.

Air quality monitoring systems are currently very expensive and tend to be imported. Thanks to the Make in India initiatives, however, many Indian companies have started to manufacture low-cost and highly reliable sensor-based air quality monitoring systems. These are also easy to install and have low maintenance costs. It is now possible to install a large number of such instruments quickly, especially in urban areas. The IITs are helping as well as they have started centres of excellence in this domain, with a mission to establish a nationwide network of affordable air quality sensors. An integrated AI/ML-based model with data from the new air quality and weather sensors will be a major step forward to accurately predict fog as it will help in timely decision making around transportation and the health-related impacts of air pollution.

With these recent advances, India is poised to establish a world-class, robust air quality and weather information network. What will bring everything together is a time-bound, inclusive approach by the various stakeholders to create this most important of national infrastructures. Once seamless data sharing and systems integration is achieved, India will have access to a new information gateway, one that is critical to addressing our climate and environmental challenges.

Sachchida Nand Tripathi is Professor, IIT Kanpur. Ashish Agarwal is Founder & Chief Technology Officer, Ingen Technologies