Opinion UP polls,UPA’s prospects

Banerjee claims the reason for her eleventh-hour change of heart is that the government does not keep allies in the picture till the last moment. There is no UPA coordination committee,proposals are simply brought at the last minute to the cabinet by Congress ministers as if they were etched in stone. She has a point,but at the same time her behaviour suggests she is spoiling for a fight. Differing with the government on issues like FDI in retail,the pension bill,petroleum price hikes and sharing of the Teesta waters can be explained away as in keeping with her populist image and regional chauvinism. But why make a prestige issue out of renaming an Indira Gandhi guest house in Salt Lake city after Bengali poet Kazi Nazrul Islam,knowing that an affront to the Gandhi family is the Congress’s Achilles’ heel? Just a week ago,she cocked a snook at the Congress once again by stripping Congress minister Manoj Chakraborty of his parliamentary affairs and small and medium industries portfolios. To add grist to the mill,the TMC has fielded its own candidates in the UP and Manipur assembly polls. Never mind that the Bengali vote in India’s largest state is minuscule and TMC’s candidates are likely to lose their deposits.

Banerjee’s paranoia that the Congress is conspiring against her with her arch enemy,the communists,is of long standing. Earlier this month,she openly dared the Congress to leave her government. But she is also flying high on the assumption that the Congress needs her more than she needs it; after all,the TMC has a majority on its own in the West Bengal assembly.

Ironically,Banerjee’s spoilsport tactics have reaped no extra advantage for her party or her state,unlike Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference. Both parties let the Congress decide on national issues and make appropriate noises only when the direct interests of the parties at the regional level are threatened. In the bargain,they not only call the shots at the state level but have also bagged a disproportionate number of ministries at the Centre. The NC has only three MPs,yet it has one cabinet minister. The NCP,with nine MPs,has two cabinet ministers and one minister of state.

The DMK is another ally which extracted a heavy price at the time of UPA 2’s formation,even though it permitted the Congress no foothold in the state government. The DMK,with a strength of 18 MPs,had three powerful cabinet ministers and four MoS. Its clout was virtually unchallenged in the lucrative communication ministry and,as investigations in the 2G scam now suggest,the Central government had to perforce look the other way as norms and rules were flouted. The Congress has had to pay a heavy price for giving a free hand to former DMK Telecom Minister A. Raja. It now finds itself tarred with the same brush.

However,today the boot is on the other foot. M. Karunanidhi is so besieged that despite his daughter Kanimozhi’s prolonged detention in jail he had no option but to suffer the indignity silently. With several CBI cases against its key leaders and Tamil Nadu CM J. Jayalalithaa baying for the DMK’s blood,the DMK now needs the support of the Central government more than the Congress needs the DMK’s.

The DMK learnt to its cost that the relationship between the ruling party and its ally has to be based on mutual trust and reciprocity,and it cannot be totally one-sided. The DMK’s plight should serve as a lesson to Banerjee. Pushed to the wall by Banerjee,the Congress is banking on favourable results in UP to free itself of her clutches. It calculates that the Samajwadi Party,with 22 MPs,will prop up the UPA and,as a quid pro quo,the Congress would support an SP-led government in the state.

express@expressindia.com