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Opinion The winning factor

Don’t overstate Anna’s influence on the Hisar result

October 18, 2011 03:59 AM IST First published on: Oct 18, 2011 at 03:59 AM IST

Bhajan Lal,who claimed to hold a “PhD in politics”,was the only non-Congress leader with a win when the Congress romped home with nine of 10 seats in Haryana in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Such was his clout in Hisar,his stronghold for more than a quarter century,that despite ill health which had confined him mostly to his house,Bhajan Lal overcame the formidable challenge posed by the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Congress to win the seat for his party,the Haryana Janhit Party (HJV). He never recovered from his illness and passed away this June,necessitating the by-election.

It was clear from the beginning that Bhajan Lal’s son,Kuldeep Bishnoi,would be the party candidate. Bishnoi had won the 2004 Lok Sabha election from Hisar and had resigned towards the end of the tenure. He refrained from contesting again for Lok Sabha,focusing instead on the 2009 assembly polls in which his party won six seats,including his own. Five of his party MLAs later joined the Congress,leaving him alone to raise the party banner in the state assembly.

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If the HJP had pitched the 2009 parliamentary elections as perhaps the last battle fought by its ageing leader,this time the party campaign focused on Bhajan Lal’s contributions to the constituency and asked voters to allow Bishnoi to take forward Bhajan Lal’s agenda. The sympathy factor was clearly in Bishnoi’s favour,especially in rural areas. Bishnoi thus began his campaign with a clear head-start.

The INLD’s Ajay Chautala,who lost to Bishnoi by a narrow margin of 6,323 votes,was the first to declare his candidacy. He hoped to regain ground with the help of Jat votes.

Meanwhile,the Congress was struggling to finalise its candidate,since the rival factions in the state were staking claim to the seat. By the time the Congress decided to field Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s choice,Jai Parkash,it was quite clear that the party was not likely to win the seat,or even come close to winning. Even Congress leaders refrained from making tall claims,though there was the inevitable false bravado.

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By the time Anna Hazare’s team came on the scene,the Congress was fighting with its back to the wall. The statement made by Team Anna — that the Hisar election would be a referendum on the Jan Lokpal Bill — was taken with a pinch of salt even by the Congress’s rivals. Team Anna’s call to oppose the Congress candidate and its refusal to back anyone in particular cheered the Bishnoi camp,which soon claimed that Anna was indirectly supporting him.

The call by Team Anna to oppose the Congress candidate was generally seen in the constituency as an unnecessary afterthought,since the chances of Parkash winning the seat had in any case been nil. There was even speculation that he might lose his deposit.

What went in favour of Bishnoi,besides the sympathy factor,was the support from the BJP. The BJP-INLD alliance had collapsed before the 2009 assembly elections,and the new political alignment could have a significant impact on Haryana politics.

The BJP’s influence in urban areas complemented the support from rural areas for the HJV. Another major factor that could have helped Bishnoi was the absence of a BSP candidate. Under such circumstances,the BSP vote usually goes to the Congress. However,the memory of Mirchpur,which is part of Hisar — in April 2010 a Dalit and his daughter were burnt to death following a clash between the Jat and Valmiki communities — ensured that the BSP votebank did not shift to the ruling Congress. Dalit voters seemed to have preferred Bishnoi to Chautala,a Jat leader.

The by-election,in the end,was almost like a re-run of the 2009 Lok Sabha election which Bhajan Lal had won by a narrow margin of 6,900 votes. He had secured 2.48 lakh votes against the INLD’s 2.41 lakh and the Congress’s 2.04 lakh votes. This time both the HJC and the INLD candidates have gained almost one lakh votes each,partly due to the increased number of voters. The Congress,though,has a lot to worry about. It has turned out to be biggest loser,with 60,000 votes less than last time and its candidate forfeiting the deposit.

vipin.pubby@expressindia.com

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