Opinion The splintering in Kathmandu
PM Madhav Nepal fails to inspire trust,and its the army which is being viewed as a stabilising force
Speculation has begun over how long the coalition government led by Madhav Kumar Nepal will survive. The prime minister has failed,three weeks after he took over,to give full and final shape to the cabinet. Terai-based parties are reconsidering their participation in the government asserting that the PM lacks the character required to head a coalition. Their frustration is rising because all the plum portfolios are being pocketed by two major coalition constituents Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist leaving the smaller parties with a fait accompli.
That only means political stability in Nepal is still far away,and that peace and democracy may not be institutionalised so easily. The hope that Madhav Nepal could provide a durable and effective coalition is thinning. Moreover,the country faces a serious law and order problem with Maoists reverting to the subversion of peace and harassing their political rivals.
In less than three weeks,the prime minister seems to have lost the faith of both President Rambaran Yadav and the Nepal army. With most political parties except the Nepali Congress reconsidering joining the government, and with Maoists actively engaged in paralysing the state,the president and Nepal army losing faith in the PM is not a healthy sign.
Madhav Nepal,considered a timid person,has failed to get his party CPN-UML to stand by President Yadavs May 3 decision to stay Prachandas unilateral sacking of Army Chief Katawal and appoint Lt. Gen Kul Bahadur Khadka as the new chief. In fact,it was on the advice of Nepal and 17 other parties that the president took the controversial stand that led to Prachandas resignation as PM. While Gen R. Katawal continues to be chief of army staff following the presidents order,the present Cabinet has not even annulled Prachandas decision to make Lt. Gen Khadka the acting chief of the army. On the other hand,the PM asked Gen Katawal to shelve the move to constitute a court of inquiry to initiate court martial proceedings against Khadka on the charge of breach of discipline,hobnobbing with politicians and conspiring to wreck the army from within.
A weak government,and a PM at loggerheads with the army chief does not augur well. In fact,right from Prachandas resignation citing a Nepal army-president nexus,the army has been at the centre of the current political polarisation. That situation will change only when the political leadership is strong,and it has the vision and courage to own the Nepal army and undertake the necessary reform. By refusing to correct the Maoist-led governments changes in army top brass,Madhav Nepal is creating a situation where the army may not remain friendly as during the Maoist regime.
With the major constitutional institutions and government apparatus under severe strain,there seems to be increasing realisation on the part of the international community that the Nepal army is,at the moment,the most effective institution for countrys stability. In a rare gesture in the wake of the Maoist governments collapse,the Chinese ambassador extended full support to the Nepal army. The gesture came almost around the same time as the US assistant secretary for South and Central Asian affairs,Robert Blakes suggestion of increased coordination between the US and Nepali army.
In brief,in what appears like a Nepal army versus Maoist tussle that has caused both the isolation of the Maoists and the heroic projection of the army as a political instrument may have disastrous consequences. But unfortunately,the army feeling disowned by the government during the Maoist-led regime,and delay on Madhav Nepals part to reverse the decision of change in army leadership will continue to fuel the current level of distrust. Sadly,Madhav Nepal appears unable to address the source of that distrust.
yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com
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