Opinion The man whos coming to dinner
What a difference a year makes.
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What a difference a year makes. When Dr Manmohan Singh went to Washington and was received by Barack Obama,there was a sense of achievement on the part of Indians. George W Bush and then Obama had showed a genuine friendship with our Prime Minister. Within fifty years of Eisenhower coming to India at the height of the Cold War,India had achieved a serious stature in the global diplomatic scene.
But the man coming next week is a shadow of his former self. Like David Cameron who came in July,Obama arrives with a distinct sense of being on the defensive. If he is lucky,the mid-term elections would have been only mildly humiliating for himloss of the House majority but still retaining the Senate majority for Democratic Party. Perhaps,it will be worse and he would be savaged by US voters and lose both Houses.
Obama presents a paradox. Compared to John Kennedy or even Bill Clinton,he has had more and bigger Bills passed. Healthcare,which defeated many previous presidents,was to be his crowning glory. He also got some tough legislation reforming Wall Street. Yet his popularity has plummeted. Democratic candidates in the election dont want to be seen with him. There is a degree of hatred for him which American voters display only for people they believe are un-American. A quarter of the voters think,quite wrongly,that he is a Muslim.
The worlds most powerful country feels resentful since it knows its prime position is under threat. China is,of course,the big beast. But even India is looked upon no longer with pity but awe and some envy. Obama himself has already said that US is competing against Bangalore and that outsourcing is a threat to American jobs. These are bleatings of a weak leader,not a strong one.
Even so,Obama is likely to be Indias best friend in the US. Once the elections are over,American protectionism and economic bullying will get worse. The economy is still weak and there are few signs that Obama will be allowed to do much to speed up recovery. The US is predicted to have a paralysis of politics with Congress making the Presidents life hell. Americans will not go quietly and gracefully into decline as the British did. They will fight ugly battles against the world and with their President as a symbol of the inability of America to do much about the loss of power.
The Tea Party movement is an all-American version of political madness,of rampant irrational extremism. The RSS is sane by comparison. I recall how in the 1964 Presidential elections,the Goldwater Republicans had the same wild-eyed enthusiasm,the same capacity of denial that the flat-earthers have. Even so,though Goldwater lost heavily in 1964,Ronald Reagan succeeded in 1980 and Republicans ruled in 20 out of the next 28 years. So do not be surprised if the Tea Party does not go away and returns in 2012 to finish Obama off.
A right wing America in denial about the reality of its relative decline will not be good news. The moderate Centre has been eroded from American politics and there is little of the bi-partisan spirit which makes America such an effective world power. An America unsure of itself,assertively picking up fights around the world and refusing to put its own economy in order,will make for a very unpleasant decade or two. George W Bushs NeoCons had some idealism,wrong headed though it may have been. They wanted the world to enjoy democracy and liberal market economy. They were willing to go to war for that.
The Tea Party radicals have no world vision,no idealism and will try a Christian fundamentalist foreign policy with no aid for abortion or HIV/Aids,no help for Palestine,belligerence towards China and perhaps India as well. They hate the UN and any multilateral diplomacy. America could turn back within itself and that will not be good news.
Obama may need us more now but we need Obama to stay there beyond 2012. Let us be nice to him.
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