Opinion The green elephant in the room
Mayawati is actively wooing UPs Muslims. Will she succeed?
Finally,Varun Gandhi has walked out of jail. Even if he refrains from the kind of speech that got Mayawati to slap the NSA on him,there is no question that he has ignited a fresh debate and political churn in the state. Has the Varun episode altered the contour of politics at least in Uttar Pradesh? Some feel that while the impact ofVaruns political theatre for his own party is unclear,it might have earned Mayawati substantial political gains among Muslim voters.
In Uttar Pradesh every fifth voter is a Muslim. Again,based on estimates made by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS),out of 80 parliamentary constituencies in the state,there are about 21 constituencies where Muslims account for 20 per cent or more of the total population. Given the multi-corner contests in the state,Muslims could play a decisive role in these constituencies. While Mayawati did make a dent in the Muslim vote bank in the last assembly elections held in 2007,yet she secured only a small slice of it. The post-poll survey conducted by CSDS indicated that only 17 per cent Muslims had voted for the BSP compared to 47 per cent for the SP. Between 2002 and 2007,the BSP could increase only 7 percentage points among Muslim voters.
In a politically fluid situation,a formidable and enduring social alliance is necessary for capturing power. In Uttar Pradesh,Dalits and Muslims together constitute 40 per cent of the total population. Mayawati must be aware that the upper caste bonhomie with BSP is going to be short-lived. The reasoning is simple. For a large section of upper castes,supporting the BSP (a de facto party of Dalits) to power is unnatural. In brief,riding on upper caste support would be a political slip up for her in the long run. The OBC bloc is difficult to win over. Conversely,not only could Muslims be easily brought to the party fold,but also could be moulded as an enduring support base. And the Varun episode provided her that rare opportunity she might have been waiting for. Also,Mayawati has supplemented her calculated move by fielding as many as 14 Muslim candidates in Uttar Pradesh alone.
In vote-bank politics ones gain is not without the loss of another. If Mayawati gains,who loses? Obviously,it is none other than Mulayam Singh Yadav. Mulayam has been courting Muslim votes since the demolition of Babri Masjid. This paid Mulayam huge political dividends. However,over the years Mulayam appears to be losing his hold on the Muslim community. In 1998,SP secured above 70 per cent of Muslim votes. In the 2002 assembly elections,the support of Muslim voters reduced to 54 per cent and further shrunk to 47 per cent in 2007 assembly elections. While Mayawati has taken careful steps to bring Muslims to her fold,Mulayam,by befriending Kalyan Singh has only accelerated the weaning away of Muslims from the SP. Clearly,the odds are in favour of Mayawati. If Mayawati succeeds in her gameplan,this could be the toughest political battle in Mulayam Singhs entire political career.
However,the picture is not as clear as it appears to be. Between Maya and Mulayam stands the Ulema Council,the prime mover of which is Badruddin Ajmal,the leader of AUDF in Assam. Ajmal succeeded in weaning away Muslim votes from the Congress and twisted the political fortune of it in Assam. Ajmals success triggered political hopes in a section of Muslims outside Assam and is being experimented in states like Bihar,UP and West Bengal. While the Ulema Council appeals to other marginalised communities and is supporting non-Muslim candidates at many places,its prime constituency happens to be the Muslims. Ulema Council may speak a different language from the Muslim League,but people understand what it stands for. Will the Ulema Council dampen Mayawatis move to woo Muslim voters? In the last assembly elections (2007),Muslim political fronts had cut a sorry figure and failed to attract Muslim voters. As things stand today,the Ulema Council may not get much in the way of Muslim votes in this election,but it is certainly making inroads among Muslims. In many constituencies,it may prove a spoiler for both the BSP and SP. However,it would not be surprising if Mayawati substantially cut into the Muslim vote bank in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.
The writer is associate fellow at Lokniti/CSDS,Delhi
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