Opinion The great Game Folio

Unlike many others,Blackwill is not making an abstract argument. His case for a de-facto partition is tied closely to a realistic assessment of US options in Afghanistan at a time when the war effort there is not going well. Yet,there will be real political resistance in Washington to any policy that explicitly calls for a partition of Afghanistan,de facto or de jure. It is likely to be considered only when all other options have been tried out unsuccessfully.

Paradoxically,the territorial arrangements in the Middle East negotiated at the end of the First World War have survived far longer than those designed at the same time in Europe. Meanwhile,few leaders of Afghanistan,whatever their ethnicity,press for a partition of their country.

Further partition in the north-western subcontinent is unlikely to emerge out of a deliberate policy choice in Washington. Nor can India make it happen as many in Pakistan seem to fear. The division of Afghanistan,if it does happen,will be an unintended consequence of decisions made by the major actors in Afghanistan. None of them is more important than the Pak Army.

Rawalpindi’s obsessive search for a weak and pliable Afghan state could be the most likely cause for a potential break up of Afghanistan. Rawalpindi wants to have the kind of relationship with Kabul that the British Raj had. Lacking the resources of the Raj to establish an enduring strategic influence in Afghanistan,Rawalpindi has sought to promote extremist religious identity among the Pashtuns.

The Taliban and other Pashtun militant groups,then,have become Rawalpindi’s instruments for influence across the Durand Line that formally divides the territories of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The problem for Pakistan is that the moment it reinstalls the Taliban in Afghanistan’s power structure,there will be a reaction from other ethnic groups like the Tajiks and Hazaras. Pakistan’s expanded influence in Kabul through the Taliban will bring other neighbours like Iran to push back.

While geography has given Pakistan the certain capacity to destabilise Afghanistan,it is not clear if Rawalpindi has the wisdom to build unity of purpose across the Durand Line.

Greater Khorasan

If Pashtunistan is one way of thinking about the partition of Afghanistan,Khorasan is the other. The term Khorasan,which literally means the land where the Sun rises,today refers to the north-eastern province of Iran centred around the historic city of Mashhad.

Khorasan,however,has come to symbolise many other agendas as well. If the Taliban imposes its brand of Islam on the whole of Afghanistan,the non-Pashtun minorities may have no choice to bid for a Khorasan in northern and western Afghanistan,so rooted in a Turko-Persian culture.

The geographic concept of a greater Khorasan encompasses vast stretches of the trans-Oxus regions of Central Asia and Afghanistan beyond the Hindu Kush. According to those who monitor the al Qaeda propaganda,the references to Khorasan are becoming frequent these days. The jihadis apparently believe that it is in Khorasan that they will win their first major victory while the final victory awaits them in the Levant.

War funds

Coming back to more immediate considerations,the US Congress remains the most important political variable in the Afghan war. The growing popular discomfort with the war was evident in the House of Representatives voting earlier this month on funds for President Barack Obama’s troop surge in Afghanistan.

An amendment sponsored by Obama’s fellow Democrats in the House demanding a complete timetable for full withdrawal from Afghanistan got 162 votes,the highest against the war until now. It was defeated by a 260-vote majority in a house of 435 thanks to Republican support.

But nine Republicans voted with the Democratic opponents of the war,that included the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The liberal Democrats want Obama to go beyond his vague promise of “starting” the withdrawal from Afghanistan in July 2011.

raja.mohan@expressindia.com