Opinion The great Game Folio

Toughening resistance from the Taliban in southern Afghanistan has begun to stir anxieties in Washington that Obama’s military surge may not work. The US Senate and House have called for separate hearings this week to assess the progress in the war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Gen. David Petraeus,the head of the US Central Command that oversees the American military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan,and the under-secretary of defence for policy,Michelle Flournoy,are expected to testify and make the case for giving more time for the strategy to work.

There is a growing public perception that the Marja operations in Helmand province planned by the commander of the US forces in Afghanistan,Gen. Stanley McChrystal,have been less than successful. Gen. McChrystal’s decision to postpone the Kandahar offensive have reinforced the view that the American troops may not be able to reverse the recent momentum behind the Taliban.

The Congress,then wants to know where the war effort is headed and whether it should simply back Obama’s strategy or demand major changes in it.

The anxious public debate is bound to put on the defensive those in the administration and the military who have made the case for a patient strategy of counter-insurgency rather than simple counter-terrorism. Sections of the administration and the Democratic Party that have demanded that the US cut its losses in Afghanistan are steadily gaining ground.

Third review

President Obama is already committed to a review the Afghan strategy in December,the third since he took charge of the White House in January 2010. Within weeks after being sworn in as president,Obama completed a comprehensive assessment of the situation and announced a new Af-Pak strategy in March 2010.

During the summer and autumn of 2009,Obama embarked on an extended review of the military strategy to announce last December a plan that called for an immediate surge in troop numbers and to start scaling them down from July 2011. Mounting troop losses in Afghanistan,the international forces lost thirty soldiers last week alone,are not the only factor compelling the US to rethink its plans.

The Europeans,who were supposed to help boost the American military surge,are nowhere near meeting their commitments,even on providing military trainers. There is no sign of NATO replacements for the large contingents of Canadian and Dutch troops which are expected to be withdrawn this summer.

Meanwhile Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai appears to be losing faith in the ability of the United States and its allies to defeat the Taliban. Not surprisingly,he may be striking out on his own. Meanwhile,the recognition that the Pakistan army may not be a reliable partner in achieving American objectives is casting a shadow over the very logistical basis of the Western strategy in Afghanistan.

Four ideas

As Washington begins to consider a different approach to Afghanistan — more modest political objectives,a reduced combat footprint and an engagement with sections of the Taliban — Delhi must go beyond its complaints about a premature American withdrawal and possible handing over of Afghanistan to the Pakistan army.

During the Obama administration’s previous review of its Afghan policy,India was largely a bystander. This time around,India must take the initiative to come up with new and workable ideas on how to stabilise Afghanistan.

In an address on Monday to a conference regional cooperation between Afghanistan,Pakistan and India,Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao has underlined four important elements of India’s evolving approach to Afghanistan.

One is that India is not opposed to the re-integration of the Taliban rank and file if they give up violence and agree to respect the Afghan constitution. Two,the internal peace process must be complemented by a regional framework. Three,Afghanistan’s neighbours and partners adhere to the “principle of non-interference in the country’s affairs”.

Finally,India wants to ensure that Afghanistan “thrives as a trade and transit hub for the region”. These are indeed sensible ideas. What Delhi needs now is purposeful diplomacy that can translate these principles into reality by mobilising much needed regional and international support.

raja.mohan@expressindia.com