Opinion The great game folio

“We frankly have to be sensitive in our own comments about President Karzai… and be mindful that he is the embodiment of sovereignty for Afghanistan”,Gates said. Such common sense tends to be uncommon when an imperial capital deals with a presumed client state. A few weeks ago when President Barack Obama was flying into Kabul,his national security advisor Jim Jones ostentatiously told the accompanying US media that Karzai was being told of the visit “about now”.

Karzai,who began to develop his options amidst the prospect of the Obama administration trying to marginalise him,hit back hard. He accused Washington of political meddling and threatened that he might even join the Taliban to defend the dignity of the Afghan nation. The White House responded by suggesting that Obama might withdraw the invitation extended to Karzai for visiting Washington next month.

Then followed the last straw. One Mr Peter Galbraith,an American who resigned recently from the UN mission in Afghanistan,declared that Karzai was ‘unstable’ and might be using narcotics.

That utterly irresponsible statement probably reminded Washington that it had gone too far. Hillary Clinton quickly stepped out to support Karzai. “I personally have a lot of sympathy for President Karzai and the extraordinary stress he lives under every single minute of every single day,” Hillary said,recalling her days in the Clinton White House when she and her husband were under relentless political scrutiny.

The statements from Obama’s senior cabinet members suggest that the administration has recognised that it may not have too many alternatives to Karzai. That Washington had gone so far in humiliating Karzai before pulling back underlines the perils of the current liberal hubris in Washington.

Americans are not the first outsiders to underestimate the intelligence of the Afghans and presume that they “own” them,just because they are currently in occupation. History tells us that it is Afghans who manipulate the outsiders.

Kyrgyz Base

As political turbulence grips Kyrgyzstan,the Manas air base in the country that is accessed by American troops operating in Afghanistan is in the news. The new leaders in Bishkek,the capital of Kyrgyzstan,are charging Washington of letting the family members of the ousted president,Kurmanbek Bakiyev,of making windfall profits in contracts to sell jet fuel to the US planes. Companies controlled by the son of the ousted president,according to US media reports,made as much as US$ 8 million a month from the fuel sales. Bakiyev’s links with the US and his corruption have been part of the anger that has propelled the Bishkek rebellion a few days ago.

The new rulers appear to have promised Washington that they will not disturb the arrangements with the US on the Manas base,at least for the moment. Beyond the issue of corruption,the Manas air base has been part of a geopolitical jockeying between US and Russia. Moscow had resented Washington’s efforts at distancing the former Soviet Republics from Russia. As Obama seeks to “reset” US relations with Russia,a political understanding on respecting Russian interests in it’s “near abroad” could help Washington win support for gaining sustained access to Afghanistan from the North.

Kazakh Deal

While there is some uncertainty about the future of the Kyrgyz base,the Obama administration has reasons to cheer about accessing Afghanistan through Kazakhstan. In a meeting with Obama in Washington on Sunday,the Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev has agreed to let the US fly troops and weapons over its territory. This deal will open up a direct route between the US and Afghanistan through the North Pole.

Although there is no real substitute for the current American overland supply routes into Afghanistan through Pakistan,the northern routes through Russia and Central Asia could help complement them. If the US does consolidate its access into Afghanistan as part of a political deal with Russia,Beijing might have to think hard about its own Central Asian strategy that has relied until now on a partnership with Moscow.