Plan B
All the major players in Afghanistan are either moving to plan B or searching for one. The most painful transition is in Washington,where President Barack Obama is taking his time to change his mind in the full glare of the media.
The most impressive is Pakistans mastery at implementing plan B even as it wins credit for embarking on Plan A. Consider for example the Pak Armys long awaited and much lauded military offensive into South Waziristan launched a few days ago. According to an Associated Press report from the Pak-Afghan border region,the Army is cutting deals with tribes that fight the Americans to maintain neutrality in the current war between the Mehsuds who had lent support to the Pak Taliban and the Pakistani state.
According to AP,the deals increase the chances of an army victory against Pakistans internal enemy No. 1,but indicate that the 3-day-old assault into the Talibans strongholds in South Waziristan may have less effect than the US wants on a spreading insurgency across the border in Afghanistan.
Unofficial but influential voices from Pakistan make it quite clear that Talibans return to power is inevitable and that Washington must cut its losses and leave Afghanistans future in the hands of Islamabad. Meanwhile the Afghan Taliban,convinced of its impending victory,is adding a diplomatic element to its strategy by reaching out to potential friends in the international community. It was by no means accidental that the Talibans first diplomatic outreach was to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation that brings China,Russia and the Central Asian neighbours of Afghanistan together.
Chinas entry
If Americans are considering options for exiting from Afghanistan,the Chinese seem well poised to consolidate their recent strategic entry. Beijing is smart enough to recognise the importance of engaging all Afghan actors in order to develop lasting leverage in Kabul. Beijings closeness to the Karzai government was reflected in its successful bid for the massive copper mining contract in Afghanistan last year. The Chinese plan to invest more than US$ 3 billion in developing the Aynak copper mines is probably the largest single commercial contract ever in the history of Afghanistan.
A report released last week in Washington by a former advisor to the Afghan ministry of mines says Beijing won the tender because the process was flawed; it had no oversight and was biased in favour of Chinese companies.
If the Pakistani Army manages to reinstall its Taliban allies back to power in Afghanistan,China will naturally be a major beneficiary. Unlike in the 1990s,when Pakistan allowed its moment of control in Kabul slip quickly,this time it will have a strong partner in China to make some positive economic developments happen in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile China hosted last week the Afghan Vice President Karim Khalili who is also the leader of the Hazara community and had played an important role in the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance in the late 1990s.
Iran vs Saudi
As Tehran points a finger at Islamabad (as well as Washington and London) for the recent spectacular bombing of its top security officials in Sistan-Balochistan on the border with Pakistan and Afghanistan,its real concerns may well be about Saudi Arabia.
Irans fears about Saudi-Pak promotion of Sunni extremism,of the kind championed by the Taliban,resulted in its support to Talibans enemies in the 1990s. Tehran is bound to see the recent bombings in Sistan-Balochistan in the context of a resurgent Taliban and the Saudi-Pak attempts at getting Washington to reconcile with the Taliban.
As America dithers,it is the Saudi-Iran rivalry,rather than the much trumpeted India-Pak competition,that could turn out to be one of the decisive factors in the latest round of the Great Game.
The writer is Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the Library of Congress,Washington DC
