Opinion Telling it like it is to Pakistan
Obama was emphatic and clear on terrorism,Kashmir and the Af-Pak situation. It is now for Pakistan to heed the message.
President Obama obviously chose the central hall of the Indian Parliament to deliver his message to Pakistan,and the message was crystal clear: the US does not intend to withdraw from Afghanistan next July as is expected by the Pakistani army and establishment. Obama asserted: We are making progress in our mission to break the Talibans momentum and to train Afghan forces so they can take the lead for their security. And while I have made it clear that American forces will begin the transition to Afghan responsibility next summer,I have also made it clear that Americas commitment to the Afghan people will endure. The United States will not abandon the people of Afghanistan or the region to the violent extremists who threaten us all. Our strategy to disrupt,dismantle and defeat Al-Qaeda and its affiliates has to succeed on both sides of the border. That is why we have worked with the Pakistani government to address the threat of terrorist networks in the border region. The Pakistani government increasingly recognises that these networks are not just a threat outside of Pakistan they are a threat to the Pakistani people,who have suffered greatly at the hands of violent extremists.
He has also indicated to the Pakistanis and those who empathise with them and support them in the US military establishment,that he did not buy the propaganda that they needed jihadi outfits as strategic assets against future Indian influence in Afghanistan. The joint statement issued by the Indian prime minister and the US president makes it clear that the two sides have resolved to pursue joint development projects with the Afghan government in capacity-building,agriculture and womens empowerment. Pakistan and its supporters in the US military establishment are being told that the Indian presence in Afghanistan will continue and increase.
His message to Pakistan on terrorism was equally blunt. He reiterated: We will continue to insist to Pakistans leaders that terrorist safe havens within their borders are unacceptable,and that the terrorists behind the Mumbai attacks be brought to justice. We must also recognise that all of us have an interest in both an Afghanistan and a Pakistan that is stable,prosperous and democratic and none more so than India.
This was further elaborated in the joint statement which stated: Condemning terrorism in all its forms,the two sides agreed that all terrorist networks,including Lashkar-e-Toiba,must be defeated and called for Pakistan to bring to justice the perpetrators of the November 2008 Mumbai attacks. Building upon the Counter-Terrorism Initiative signed in July 2010,the two leaders announced a new Homeland Security Dialogue between the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Department of Homeland Security and agreed to further deepen operational cooperation,counter-terrorism technology transfers and capacity building. The two leaders also emphasised the importance of close cooperation in combating terrorist financing and in protecting the international financial system. Presumably,the Pakistani army is already aware that terrorist activity directed from Pakistan against India after 26/11 will be under the watch of both Indian and US intelligence capabilities cooperating with each other. Apart from the increased capabilities of Indian intelligence,this cooperation may be yet another reason why there has been no successful terrorist attempt on India after the Pune bakery outrage.
On Kashmir,Obama endorsed Manmohan Singhs approach of a dialogue and peace process between the two countries,which should progress from more easily solvable issues building up confidence to addressing the most difficult problem the 63-year-old Kashmir issue. There was also a subtle message to Pakistan in his assertion that India is not a rising power but one that has already arrived. One of the long-cherished myths in Pakistan,going back to Zulfikar Bhuttos time,is their fervent belief that Pakistan can hold Indias rise hostage to New Delhi settling Kashmir on their terms. Obama was telling them to give up such ideas. When Obama refers to Pakistan being a state that was strategically important to the world,that was a veiled reference to its being a nuclear-weapon power that has to be handled appropriately.
Now that the US president has taken a clear stand on terrorism,Kashmir,Afghanistan,the Af-Pak issue and not leaving Afghanistan to the mercies of Taliban,it is obvious that he must have a strategy other than pumping money into Pakistan and giving them additional military aid. While it is widely highlighted that if the war in Afghanistan continues into 2012 and the US continues to incur casualties,Obama will end up as a one-term president,most of our analysts do not go into the question of whether his chances of re-election will improve if he loses the war and withdraws from Afghanistan. He has promised to visit Pakistan next year.Will he be visiting a country whose army frustrates him through its double-crossing? His visit to India proved that he plays his cards close to his chest. The US has stepped up its drone attacks on the tribal territory manifold in the recent months. The jihadi terrorist attacks in Pakistan have also increased,the latest being on the mosque in Dara Adamkhel inflicting 90 fatalities.The aid promised to Pakistan is not likely to be sanctioned by the US Congress unless the Pakistani army falls in line with US demands to act in North Waziristan. In the recent strategic dialogue in Washington,President Obama himself is reported to have given a piece of his mind to General Kayani.The winter conditions may restrict movements in snow-clad mountainous areas,but will not adversely affect the capabilities of drone aircraft.
President Obama is due to carry out the next review of the Af-Pak strategy in December. One wonders whether his pronouncements in Delhi are a prelude to his shaping that strategy and also a way of making clear to people like General Petraeus where he stands on various issues like the Indian presence in Afghanistan and settlement with the Taliban. Our analysts should concentrate more on what will happen as the US drones further step up attacks on North Waziristan and the jihadis increase their attacks on Pakistani civilian targets. The developments in the next six months in the Af-Pak area are far more crucial than the five-year economic and military aid to Pakistan. A lot depends on General Kayani. While Pakistani generals,faced with reality,have been known to come to terms with it,Pakistani civilians like Jinnah and Bhutto behaved irrationally. Gandhi offered Jinnah prime ministership of India and he rejected it and chose to be the Quaid-e-Azam of a moth-eaten Pakistan. Bhutto chose to break up Pakistan to become the leader of one part. It is now for Kayani to make the choice.
The writer is a senior defence analyst
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