Opinion In Tamil Nadu, for BJP and AIADMK, a move to regain ground

K. Annamalai, the architect of the alliance’s breakup in 2023, was removed as BJP state chief on the same day Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced the realignment. Annamalai’s comments on Jayalalitha and other stalwarts angered the AIADMK. The BJP’s proximity with expelled AIADMK leaders like O Panneerselvam and T T V Dhinakaran was yet another point of annoyance. In a bid to placate the AIADMK leadership, Shah clarified that the BJP will not interfere in the internal affairs of its Dravidian ally.

Anticipating a possible BJP–AIADMK alliance, the DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) doubled down on its ethno-linguistic political rhetoric by strongly raising the usual concerns of the three-language formula, delimitation, etc. In fact, the AIADMK also supported some of these concerns due to its Dravidian political moorings. Shah also listed the Modi government’s measures to honour Tamil culture and language, including the installation of the Sengol in Parliament and establishing the Central Institute of Classical Tamil in Chennai.

The state BJP-led Annamalai did attempt to expand the party’s independent strength in the key southern state. But the experiment yielded only limited results as the BJP, with little-known local allies, polled just over 11 percent of the votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Though this is a significant increase compared to its earlier performance, it failed to deliver any electoral dividends. On the other hand, the AIADMK polled over 20 per cent of the votes, far less than what was required to dislodge the DMK-led alliance. Leaders from both parties and observers theorise that they could have together won as many as 12 seats if the alliance remained intact. Thus, both realised that this realignment would be a win-win.

Like any other secular regional party, the AIADMK too had several apprehensions about rejoining the BJP-led NDA. These concerns include the loss of the minority vote, the adverse impact of the Tamil sentiment over the imposition of Hindi, NEET, delimitation, etc. But the success of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in the neighbouring state of Andhra Pradesh seems to have comforted the AIADMK.

In fact, the TDP also had such misgivings. But a significant chunk of the Muslim vote was already with the YSR Congress led by Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy. The TDP did not have much to lose, unlike in Karnataka, where Janata Dal (Secular) lost the Muslim vote for allying with the BJP. The saffron party is only a junior partner in the state, and the NDA is led by N Chandrababu Naidu. The anti-incumbency against Y S Jagan was so strong that it made all such concerns, including the denial of special category status to Andhra by the Modi dispensation, electorally irrelevant. The AIADMK feels that a similar situation exists today in Tamil Nadu.

The DMK already enjoys a major share of the minority vote, and the AIADMK does not have much to lose. The BJP is a junior partner in the alliance. Shah took extra care to announce that AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami will lead the NDA in Tamil Nadu. This was a clever move to avoid backlash with respect to regional sentiments.

But, unlike in Andhra Pradesh, which saw a consolidation of the anti-Jagan vote to catapult the NDA to a historic win, the Tamil Nadu political landscape is fragmented. The emergence of the actor-turned-politician Vijay and his fledgling TVK (Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam) poses a serious challenge to the NDA’s plan in the state. Vijay, aided by the ace strategist Prashant Kishor, does not wish to play second fiddle to AIADMK. The BJP, too, had no other option. The DMK has been firm in its alliance with Congress. Hence, political pragmatism descended on the BJP and the AIADMK, two estranged allies, to revive their friendship.

The writer is a former professor of journalism at Osmania University, Hyderabad, former MLC and a political analyst