Opinion Storms in the east

On the turbulence in the South China Sea.

September 9, 2011 01:34 AM IST First published on: Sep 9, 2011 at 01:34 AM IST

As reported by Londons Financial Times,an unidentified Chinese warship had demanded that the INS Airavat,an amphibious assault vessel,identify itself and explain its presence in the South China Sea after the vessel left Vietnamese waters in late July. Though the Indian navy promptly denied that a Chinese warship had confronted its assault vessel,it did not completely deny the factual basis of the report.

The India-China strategic relationship is rapidly evolving and tensions are building up. Chinas military growth over the last decade has exceeded most forecasts,with the Chinese military fielding an operational anti-ship ballistic missile,completing a prototype of its first stealth fighter jet and launching its first aircraft carrier for a maiden run over the course of the last one year itself. Chinese capabilities are rapidly growing to an extent where it can challenge the status quo in the Pacific. The latest Pentagon report on the modernisation of the Chinese military warns India about the rapid advances Beijing is making in improving infrastructure near the border areas with India but also strengthening its deterrence posture by replacing liquid-fuelled nuclear capable CSS-2 IRBMs with more advanced and survivable solid-fuelled CSS-5 MRBM systems. The PLA navy will be building several additional aircraft carriers so as to enhance its naval fleet in addition to the Kuznetsov-class carrier (Varyag). It is likely Beijing will have its first indigenous carrier achieving operational capability as early as 2015. The US has also suggested Chinas aircraft-carrier-killing ballistic missile,the DF-21D,has reached initial operational capability.

In response to the latest India-China naval incident,the US called for a collaborative diplomatic process on resolving the disputes related to the South China Sea underlining its desire to recognise the right of passage to international waters in the South China Sea. Last year,US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had suggested the South China Sea was of strategic importance to the US and offered to act as a mediator.

India too is within its rights to transit through the international waters of South China Sea and Beijing has no right to question the passage though these waters. Of course,China claims the South China Sea in its entirety but its confrontationist posture and rhetoric can easily escalate to a major conflict. The South China Sea is now one of Asias critical strategic flashpoints with some even suggesting that it will be the military front line of China in the coming years.

Fears have been rising in Asia that China is seeking to use its growing maritime might to dominate not only the hydrocarbon-rich waters of the South China Sea but also its crucial shipping lanes,the lifeline of regional economies. Clinton used her visit to Asia last year to signal unequivocally that the US was unwilling to accept Chinas push for regional hegemony. When Beijing claimed that it now considers its ownership of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea as a core interest,Clinton retorted by proposing the US help establish an international mechanism to mediate the overlapping claims of sovereignty between China,Taiwan,the Philippines,Vietnam,Indonesia and Malaysia that now exist in the South China Sea.

This new US assertiveness vis-à-vis Beijing has been widely welcomed in the region. The other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) strongly endorsed Clintons call for multilateral commitment to a code of conduct for the South China Sea rather than Chinas preferred bilateral approach. China has collided with Vietnam and the Philippines in recent months over issues related to the exploitation of the South China Sea for its mineral resources and oil. It was under the US guardianship of common interests for the last several decades that China has emerged as the economic powerhouse it is today. Now it wants a new system a system that only works for Beijing and does not deal with the provision of public goods or common resources.

India too has an interest in protecting the sea lanes of communication that cross the South China Sea to Northeast Asia and the US. As Indias profile rises in East and Southeast Asia,it will have to assert its legitimate interests in the East Asian waters. As China expands its presence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region,India needs to stake its own claims in East Asia. India has now decided to work with Vietnam to establish a regular Indian presence in the region as part of a larger Delhi-Hanoi security partnership. Vietnam has given India the right to use its port of Nha Trang.

The US remains distracted by its own economic woes and the challenges unleashed by the Arab Spring. Meanwhile,Japan is proving unable to tackle its political inertia and emerge as a credible balancer in the region. As such,the regional environment is conducive for Beijing to assert itself.

India is right to forcefully reject Chinese claims of sovereignty over the entire South China Sea. It should now build credible strategic partnerships with other regional states so as to prevent a Chinese regional dominance that will undermine Indian and regional security interests.

The writer teaches at Kings College,London
express@expressindia.com