You can fool some of the people all the time,and all of the people some of the time,but you cannot fool all of the people all the time. Abraham Lincolns famous quote is the classic depiction of present-day deception. Narendra Modi is dreaming for a miracle that most people in general and 180 million Indian Muslims specifically should suffer from selective amnesia and gloss over the Gujarat riots of 2002. After a decade of demonisation,and languishing in their own cocoon of insecurity,the only real hope for the riot victims is in the legal system.
Fond of scripting his own history,Modi should pay attention to past experience. The perceived culpability and connivance of the Narasimha Rao government with Hindutva forces in the Babri Masjid demolition led to the Congresss electoral decimation in large swathes of India for nearly two decades. Modi may have won Gujarat repeatedly but he lost India for the BJP. What Modi forgets is that the polarisation caused by extreme fear led to enhanced voting and a sense of purpose and urgency to use the vote to ensure the NDAs exit despite the India Shining ploy. Many political parties understood this and dumped the BJP. Even the recent mauling in the 2009 general elections was partly attributed to the aggressive Hindutva rhetoric preached by Modi and Varun Gandhi.
What Modi started with his fast was akin to scoring a few self-goals. He downsized other BJP chief ministers,like Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh,upstaged L.K. Advani,rendering his dream of becoming prime minister yet more wishful,rattled the RSS leadership which is still hedging its bets,and alarmed the JD(U),the BJPs biggest political ally.
Modis planned image makeover has resulted in a subtle minority consolidation,which the heartland parties have quickly tried to seize by issuing pro-minority statements. Having cohabited with the BJP thrice earlier,even Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati,who faces a tough election in the state next year,has asked for reservations for minorities based on the Sachar panels recommendations. So,with Modi as both PM-in-waiting and Hindutva mascot,how will the BJP attract new allies?
In Gujarat where he is the BJP itself,Modi was able to singlehandedly cut through the bureaucratic maze and push the development paradigm. This kind of control of both party and government will not be available at the Centre in a coalition set-up. Also,the inherent entrepreneurship of the Gujarati people has been a key factor in the states development. In a national framework,when even factions of the Shiv Sena cannot agree on Modi,what can one say about others?
Jaswant Singh and Arun Shourie have detailed how A.B. Vajpayee,as prime minister,wanted to sack the Modi government to hold it accountable for the Gujarat riots. The minorities know that a sympathetic Central government is essential to allow a communal carnage to go on unabated. For their own security and future which is intertwined with India,they will consolidate silently,watch with bated breath the drama that is unfolding and hope that an inclusive,equitable result prevails at the hustings.
Muslims are not looking for regret,remorse or repentance from Modi. For any sense of emotional or political closure,what is imperative is legal closure,however lengthy the due judicial process may be. A fast only trivialises the issue.
Politically speaking,if these exploratory moves to test Narendra Modis acceptability results in exacerbating the internal strife within the BJP and estrangement from any of its allies,especially the JD(U),then it would be an amazing self-goal.
The writer is chairman of the editorial board at the Kanpur-based Urdu newspaper Daily Siyasat Jadid,express@expressindia.com
