Opinion Squaring with the coup

Military regimes are rarely beacons of liberal values. They come from a cultural mindset to protect against and to destroy enemies of the state. Historically,in Egypt,the military identified the Muslim Brotherhood and a number of its more radical offshoots as enemies of Egypt. This does not bode well for any transition. Understandably,many Egyptian supporters of the Brotherhood now feel robbed of participating in a free and democratic election. The impulse of many Islamists may be to lose complete faith in a democratic process. This occurred in Algeria in 1992,when Islamists who won free elections in the first round,were denied participation in government after a Western-backed Algerian military annulled the elections. Algeria saw a devastating civil war that ensued for a decade,with tens of thousands killed. Throughout Latin America,we witnessed similar coups d’etat with Marxist parties identified as the enemy du jour of the state. Till today,Latin America is reeling from the awful wounds of military dictatorship,missing persons of Marxist persuasion,and overturned democratic elections.

One doesn’t need to go into history to know how the military fared as government in Egypt. For a little over a year,the military ruled Egypt after it overthrew Mubarak in its January 25,2011 revolution. Under its watch,the military was vilified for its role in a number of crackdowns on protesters and its use of “virginity tests” on female protesters. There remain dozens of young people imprisoned by the Egyptian military,which conducts its trials outside the civilian court system under a guise of great secrecy. These are no liberal democrats,and the military’s so-called roadmap will usher in a decade of instability.

The return of the military to power will not resolve the underlying economic problems facing the Egyptian people today. Mohammed Morsi inherited an economic,political and social system in complete disarray after decades of neglect and corruption under Mubarak. After the revolution,Egyptians had high,arguably unrealistic,expectations that a democratically elected government would clean up the mess — piling garbage would be removed from the sewers,the country’s infamous traffic problems would be solved,corrupt and inefficient judges would be replaced by honest,fair-minded ones,and heavy-handed police brutality would be reined in. Egypt’s infrastructure,education,food and agriculture,housing,police,security,and legal systems (to name only a few) need to be overhauled completely,not merely reformed.

The coming fiscal meltdown is linked to the Morsi government’s continuing political and security failures,which have greatly affected confidence in the Egyptian economy. According to some accounts,Egypt lost $20-$30 billion of foreign exchange reserves in the first two years of its transition and now has only $13.5 bn left in its coffers. Hard currency is also in short supply as domestic and international investors’ trust in government has plummeted,leading to capital flight.

The fiscal cliff did not appear out of nowhere — wealthy Egyptians and international investors have been slowly taking their savings out of the Egyptian economy for some time. From the outset of the revolution,many feared (whether rightly or wrongly remains to be seen) that the Muslim Brotherhood would soon turn to draconian economic nationalisation schemes — much like Gamal Abdel Nasser did with the economic elite in the 1950s — and,consequently,they began transferring their wealth abroad. The result? An Egyptian economic situation that is anaemic at best.

The frustration of the people will continue. What will happen when the military cannot meet the economic needs of the people? Militaries often resort to emergency laws to suppress liberties and get “a state house in order”. This is the risk Egyptians have taken with this coup d’etat. It’s not a moment to celebrate,but one to take with great caution.

The writer is non-resident senior fellow,Brookings Institution and associate professor,Balsillie School of International Affairs,University of Waterloo,Canada. She has co-edited ‘Shifting Geo-Economic Power of the Gulf’

express@expressindia.com