Opinion Romancing the unpredictable

The most vivid example is in medical science. Two hundred years ago the average lifespan was under 30 years,today it has risen to over 60 years. By 2050,it is projected to increase from the current 64.7 years to 75.6 years.

Extreme predictability can have a negative rub-off too. Some time back,to discipline road traffic,the French government hung cameras at strategic points to catch motorists not respecting the road code. Often the radar pictures captured the driver in a compromising position with the opposite sex. A lot of extra-marital affairs were exposed when photographic evidence of violating traffic rules,with the love affair being incidental,reached the drivers’ homes. It led to such public revolt that this manner of discipline had to be done away with. Instead,the government had to change its policy and photograph the back of the vehicle only,recording the time and date. Now it’s highly predictable for the government but not satisfactory for car owners because the penalty will come to his driving licence even if his son or friend was making the mistake on the road with his car.

Let’s check out a perspective of unpredictability in India. A farmer who owns two acres lives from hand to mouth because he has no knowledge or capacity to fructify his land holding to make it profitable. And should his bullock unpredictably die,his crop will go for a toss,as he cannot afford a tractor.

In contrast,when I was doing research in Sacramento,California,on farm equipment in the US,I met a hobby farmer with two acres of land who produces heirloom tomatoes. He said farming these tiny button tomatoes earns him more money than he makes from his regular profession as an architect in the city.

You’ve got into the habit of fruits from a fancy modern air-conditioned retail in India. Suddenly one day you see the same fruit of similar quality being sold in a cart in front of the fancy retail at half the price. How will you react? Won’t you go ahead and buy it outside? So,you can imagine the dilemma the modern organised retailer is facing when a cart seller unpredictably snatches away his customers,in spite of his having invested in good ambience and an expensive supply chain. The problem,of course,is that the tough route of unpredictability has been totally ignored. Most of India’s organised retail business is run in a theory of statistics.

Actually unpredictability runs in our culture,and the Indian industry does not have a grip on it. I don’t think business seriously considers the gates of unpredictability,let alone applying tactics to overcome them. To give an example,in a logistics and supply chain company I was working for,a certain unrealistic time is committed to the client for door-to-door delivery. But the many kinds of problems the driver who takes the merchandise faces en route is not taken into account. The result? Unhappiness,anxiety and delay.

Of course,resolving the unpredictable cannot be entrusted to the private sector. The government has to take the responsibility. Nandan Nilekani’s excellent mission of universal biometric identity cards for all Indians will be a serious drive to reduce Indian unpredictability. Unless,of course,it’s being done only from the pressure of bodies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the pretext of strengthening financial regulation or for accountability of the masses as a measure against terrorist attacks. If it’s voluntarily being done to increase predictability,the whole country should wholeheartedly support this most noble and pragmatic field work for the country’s growth and future. I am sure the homeless people will be counted as well. This will provide us the first semblance of predictability.

Advances in technology and auto mechanisation are created to reduce unpredictability. A professional pilot I was travelling with confessed to me that he prefers to pilot small planes with propellers,the way he started to learn flying. There’s more thrill when everything is under his control and risk. He is an Airbus 320 pilot today. It seems Airbus guarantees that this extremely modern aircraft is 99.9 per cent risk free. In fact,a chain of action can happen with modern technology without too much human interface in the cockpit. So,he says,he is not a pilot any longer,but a cockpit operator. Statistically,if you look at how many planes fly in the sky today,the number of disasters is marginal.

The aviation industry has worked in such a way that every system has been automated and everything is predictable. Except,of course,the human factor of pilot strikes.

Shombit Sengupta is an international creative business strategy consultant to top management

shombit@shininguniverse.com