Opinion Putin again? I’m so surprised

Of course,there are people in Russia and elsewhere who are unhappy that the elections will be a formality. But then even if there were a free clash of candidates (including Medvedev),Putin would still win. Most Russians like Putin. He satisfies their idea of a strong president — a healthy man with a powerful torso,a sex-symbol of sorts,a tough talker who firmly defends the national interest.

Thus ends the Putin-Medvedev duopoly. Medvedev did not betray his senior comrade. He relinquished power without a struggle,apparently in accordance with obligations he accepted from the outset. But was there really any division of power in Russia,even a little bit? Or was it totally imaginary? Looking back,was not Medvedev just a part of Putin,while Putin — the big,important Putin — always consisted of Medvedev and himself?

Medvedev had some good intentions. Thank you,Dmitri Anatolyevich. But the page has turned.

Am I afraid that if I write something alarming and unflattering about the new-old president Putin — for example,that he is a soft dictator or that in 12 years (if he stays for two terms) Russia may be ripe for an Arab Spring-like revolution — I,a Russian writer,will get smacked on the head? No,I’m not afraid. For now.

Saturday began as usual. I took my six-year-old daughter Maya to the dentist to check how her baby teeth were coming,and then to the playground. At midday I learned that we’ll have Putin again. None of my friends called. That meant this was not news to any of them.

Why,then,was anyone waiting for a miracle? Apparently because over the past two years Medvedev decided to try to move Russia closer to universal values,and Russia desperately needed this. He said “Russia,forward!”: He proposed modernisation; condemned the criminal justice system,which still smacks of Stalin’s Gulag; renamed the militia the “police”; joined the Western coalition on Libya; and — well,etc,etc.

Yes,but Putin never ceased being Number One. Unlike Medvedev,Putin is likely to lead Russia not towards Europe,but along some roundabout “third way,” through various Venezuelas and other strange friends. And what about bloodthirstiness? Will there be more Khodorkovskys? I don’t know.

What I do know is that Putin is more liberal in his views than 80 per cent of the Russian population,which is more nationalistic and xenophobic than he is. He is a shield against negative feelings in what is basically a very poor country. We don’t need revolutions from below. The liberal resources of Russia are laughably small and get smaller all the time; liberals don’t know how to deal with the Kremlin or because young liberals are fleeing to the West.

So if the hopes for a miracle are finished,let there be realpolitik. If Putin will be a pragmatist,good. If we can hang on to the personal freedoms that Putin gave us in the early 2000s,this won’t be so bad at all.

Still,the country’s morale is low: corruption has become a shameless way of life; there’s a lot of aggression. The head of the Communist party,Gennady Zyuganov,recently declared that Russia has 20 times more murders than the European Union. Scary. In coming years Russians could start moving toward an ideological alliance of power and religion,à la Iran,and it could lead to unforeseen consequences. So,long live Putin the pragmatist!

Erofeyev is the author of ‘Life with an Idiot’ and a TV host Translated from the Russian