Opinion P Chidambaram writes: India applauds resolve, and waits

Exaggerated Claims

But, I am afraid, not all that the PM said on the occasion was correct. On the situation in Kashmir before the attack, Mr Modi said, “peace was returning to Kashmir; there was a vibrancy in schools and colleges; construction work had gained unprecedented pace; democracy was getting stronger; the number of tourists was increasing at a record rate; people’s income was increasing, new opportunities were being created for the youth…” Not all will agree, and in moments of deep reflection even Mr Modi will consider the claims an exaggeration:

🔴 Peace is a distant goal in Kashmir. At the all-party meeting on April 24, 2025, the presentation made by the Ministry of Home Affairs said that, in the decade between June 2014 and May 2024, there were 1,643 terrorist-initiated incidents, 1,925 infiltration attempts, 726 successful infiltrations and 576 security personnel were killed.

🔴 There was no vibrancy in schools: the ASER 2024 report revealed that enrollment in government schools had declined after 2018 and the percentage of students in higher classes who could read a Standard II text had worsened.

🔴 The most contestable claim was that democracy was getting stronger. Since the reduction in the status of J&K to a union territory, democracy has been actually diminished. J&K is a half-democracy with the Lieutenant Governor enjoying vast powers that have been denied to the council of ministers and the elected representatives. The snatching away of statehood (and the unfulfilled promise of restoration after the elections) is a continuing humiliation that rankles the people.

🔴 The official unemployment rate of J&K in 2023-24 was 6.1 per cent.

🔴 The per capita income remains below the national average.

🔴 It is, however, true that the number of tourists is on the increase but that has been rudely interrupted by the terrorist attack.

Consensus has Frayed

Immediately after the attack in Pahalgam all sections of the people spontaneously supported the government. The Congress and other parties made statements of unqualified support to any action that the government might take. If it appears that the consensus has since frayed, the government has to blame itself. There are many reasons: the government expressed shock but not contrition; no one in authority acknowledged the grave lapses in security; the prime minister cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia and returned to Delhi but did not visit Pahalgam or Srinagar; an all-party meeting was called but Mr Modi skipped it and instead chose to visit Patna for a rally.

Parties and individuals have since taken nuanced positions. The Congress Working Committee’s resolution pointed to “the BJP (is) exploiting this grave tragedy through official and proxy social media platforms to sow further discord, mistrust, polarization and division at a time when unity and solidarity are most needed.” The resolution also noted that Pahalgam was secured by a three-tier security arrangement and called for a comprehensive analysis “into the intelligence failures and security lapses that enabled such an attack.” Among jingoistic calls for retribution, Mr A.S.Dulat, former chief of R&AW and an acknowledged expert on Kashmir bluntly said “war is not an option…..it is not just the last option but the last bad option.” On the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, Mr Sharat Sabharwal, former High Commissioner to Pakistan, told Mr Karan Thapar that he did not think this was a step that should be taken but he was willing to go along with the government. The U.N. Security Council did not blame the TRF or the LeT for the attack or call out the brazen targeting of non-Muslims; yet the government attempted to give the resolution a favourable spin. China was not subtle at all: Mr Wang Yi, the foreign minister, praised Pakistan’s resolute action on terrorism, spoke of understanding Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supported Pakistan in safeguarding its security interests.

India is Waiting

Ten days have passed since the Pahalgam attack. Military experts have pointed out that a ‘surgical strike’ may not have the element of surprise and bomber aircraft may be anticipated and intercepted. Besides, as Mr Ajay Sahni has pointed out (The Road from Pahalgam, The Indian Express, April 24, 2025), these have questionable operational or strategic consequences. Given India’s military superiority, I am certain there are other options. In an officially released news report, the PM is believed to have given a ‘free hand’ to the defence forces. In a democracy, the decisions are the prime minister’s, the military executes the decisions. India’s response must have a decisive deterrent effect on the state and non-state actors who cause mayhem in Kashmir. India is waiting.