Opinion Out of my mind: The way ahead
BJP government has faced an unprecedented Opposition for reasons which are well known. The Prime Minister has to show that much has been done and more will be done.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi (Source: PTI Photo)
When the BJP was led to a majority on its own in the Lok Sabha in May 2014, there was real jubilation. After twenty-five years of coalition governments, it promised effective government. But action, as someone said, leads to equal reaction. Congress, humiliated into a position of only 44 (now 45) seats, retaliated by using its majority in the Rajya Sabha to block legislation.
During the remainder of 2014 and all of 2015, the legislative logjam has remained. No significant piece of legislation has been allowed to pass. Meanwhile, BJP won in Maharashtra and J&K but lost in Delhi and Bihar, as well as in local election in Gujarat and elsewhere.
When it won a majority in Lok Sabha, the BJP overestimated the power it would have. It thought that the lack of majority in the Rajya Sabha would be temporary as victories in state elections would turn the situation in BJP’s favour. It was also argued that if the Rajya Sabha was to reject some Bill, the Government could hold a joint session of the two houses where it would command a majority.
The Opposition had other thoughts. They prevented Bills being introduced in the Rajya Sabha at all by disrupting every day’s proceedings. This meant that no joint session could be held as the Rajya Sabha had not rejected any Bill.
What then is the prospect for 2016 ? There are several state elections ahead. But of them, Tamil Nadu is an election where out-of-state parties have no chance. In West Bengal, the battle will be three or four cornered depending on whether Congress goes with CPM or TMC or fights on its own. BJP may win a few seats but cannot hope for much more. Kerala is similar. While Congress and CPM will fight each other, the BJP can only open its account but no more. Only in Assam there is some hope for BJP if incumbency counts against Gogoi after three previous wins.
What this means is that even on best assumptions, there isn’t much for BJP which can change its Rajya Sabha arithmetic. This allows the Prime Minister to leave the fight to Amit Shah and local leaders. He need not go out for an intensive campaign as he did in Bihar. There are more vital tasks to finish in Delhi. The momentum has to be kept up in foreign policy, especially in relations with Pakistan. The global economy is fragile and volatile. There is an agrarian crisis due to falling world prices. There is Swachh Bharat, Digital India.
The Prime Minister has raised hopes by launching many initiatives. There is a pension scheme and a social security abhiyan. Subsidies have been tackled in LPG gas and Direct Cash Transfer has been embedded. Bank accounts have been opened for millions. There is Ganga to be cleaned up and infrastructure to be built. There is skilling for millions and start-ups and e-commerce opportunities to be encouraged. Parliament can stay stalled.
The Government has faced an unprecedented Opposition for reasons which are well known. The Prime Minister has to show that much has been done and more will be done. Victory in 2019 will depend not on what happens in Parliament but how many promises were delivered on.
Share
