Opinion On a hope and an election

How tempting it is to dismiss those elections. I’m forbidden from participating in politics but it is my birthright to be a political person. It is a right every citizen from every country should have. But Burma is not just any country,” Daw Aung San Suu Kyi told me in an interview last month. So why hadn’t she spoken out against the elections? “They did serve one function,they have provided an illusion of hope in these chaotic times.” Elections and hope. When we cast a vote is it not hope that we are voting for? The coming year will see many gamechanging elections,primary amongst them is the referendum that is to take place on January 9 in Sudan. Sudan,Africa’s largest country,is still reeling from the North-South civil war,one of Africa’s longest running civil wars (1983-2005) that saw two million dead at the behest of President Omar al-Bashir. The war pitted the North,Muslim Arabs,against the South’s Christians. An end to hostilities came in 2005 through the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The referendum is a core component of the CPA. It is unlikely that the South will choose to stay aligned with the government in Khartoum; it is also unlikely that Bashir will let go of power easily. The elephant in the room will most likely be Abyei,the 4,000 square mile lush province that is home to Sudan’s oil fields. The bone of contention is over the Arab Misseriya tribe. Southerners accuse Bashir of forced migration: that he has sent settlers to Abyei in order to tilt the vote. Abyei therefore will not participate in the referendum. Should a North-South divorce take place,there is the very real possibility of renewed hostilities over natural resources. Yemen too goes to the polls for parliamentary elections in April 2011. The government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh,weak and caged in,in Sana’a,faces threats from the Houthi insurgency in the North,the separatist movement in the South and the burgeoning Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula franchise. With a controversial electoral law passed merely a week ago,Saleh has alienated himself further,angering the opposition. Opposition to his government comes from the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) — a coalition of six parties that includes Islah,Yemen’s main Islamist party. For much of the past two years,Saleh has been in dialogue with the JMP. They demand political reforms,namely a shift from a presidential regime to a proportional representation parliamentary system. With the passage of the new electoral law — whereby the election commission will be composed of judges rather than delegates represented in parliament — JMP alleges that Saleh is attempting to centralise power further. The fear is that,should Saleh carry forth,Islah has the capability of amassing armed tribesmen to agitate against the centre. This could lead to renewed hostilities and further instability. In June,Zimbabwe will vote on a constitutional referendum,a vote that has the possibility of bringing an end to the fraught alliance between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai’s government of national unity. In the lead up to the referendum,Mugabe has already called for fresh elections prior to constitutional amendment. There is little doubt that Mugabe stole the election on June 27,2008. Should another election take place without adequate reform,observers say there is the very real possibility of a re-run. Tsvangirai has rejected this call despite ZANU-PF’s low popularity. South Africa’s role as a mediator and facilitator will be brought to the fore. South African President Jacob Zuma is involved in drafting the roadmap to ensure elections are free and fair.

In another part of Africa,talk of succession is rife. Egyptians will head to the ballot for a presidential vote in September. For much of the past three decades,Hosni Mubarak has been the face of Egyptian politics. Mubarak is now 81 and in ill health,and

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rumours circulate that he may step down,paving the way for his son,Gamal. Many have credited Gamal with renewing the economy. A former banker turned politician he enjoys support from Egypt’s business class but he is unpopular with the military.

The fear is that Gamal’s succession could set off a coup. The one candidate many looked towards for providing a genuine opposition to father and son,former IAEA chief Mohammed

ElBaradei,has shied away from political participation. It seems he is intent on constitutional reform. He enjoys popularity on Facebook but it is seldom seen on the streets of Cairo. However,his presence has altered the game,and it is he who likens the coming election to the one seen in Iran last year. Should Mubarak retain power,a green wave may take over the streets of Cairo.