Opinion Mohan Bhagwat’s three-child plan: Why concern about India’s falling fertility rate is misplaced

Historically, countries have thrived with stable and even declining populations by meeting labour shortages in certain regions and in critical sectors through migration and targeted skill development. What one needs to do, therefore, is to facilitate labour mobility by simplifying the procedures for interstate migration, creating better working and living conditions for workers and improving their skills. It would be important to review the legal and administrative barriers created by the states in recent years, particularly during the Covid period, which reserved lower and middle-level jobs for local population.

Two years ago, Bhagwat had called for a comprehensive population policy and argued that there should not be disparities in population growth across communities. This concern has largely been addressed by the trend emerging from the National Family and Health Survey. The data reveal that although the fertility rate for Muslims is higher than all other socio-religious groups, the rate of its decline has been very fast. Studies suggest that a policy of educational, social and economic development would reduce the TFR of Muslims, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, resulting in their convergence with the fertility rates of other communities in the next two decades.

Bhagwat has also voiced concern about the southern states losing political space at the national level due to their declining share in population — the delimitation process of parliamentary constituencies and seat allocation is based on population. This apprehension is shared by several leaders in the South, cutting across the ideological spectrum. They have also expressed concern about their ageing population, although the dependency rates of the elderly in these states are way below the global average. In the last three months, the chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu have voiced such concerns and urged people to have more children. Yet another concern of the southern states is the devolution of funds by the Finance Commission wherein population is accorded high weightage — the formula puts the southern states at a disadvantage. These are political-administrative problems and states should propose alternate ways to retain their political space within the federal structure and demand assigning more weightage for efficiency of administration instead of population by the Finance Commission — going into a competitive mode to increase population is no solution.

Would a sharp fall in fertility result in a labour shortage? This is unlikely. A significant fertility decline will not be witnessed in the coming decades. Kerala’s TFR has increased marginally whereas that of other states is getting stabilised around the replacement level. Also, the current TFRs are much above the replacement level in several states. Even in the low fertility states, several districts will have TFR above replacement level, even as late as in 2036. The regional and subregional shortages of labour can be addressed by facilitating short and long-term mobility.

The work participation rate for women, despite showing some improvement in recent years, is much below the most developing economies. The demographic transition would certainly open up opportunities for women to develop skills and take their place in the labour market. One must not forget that a large segment of India’s workforce is in informal activities and stuck in the quagmire of poverty, owing to their low productivity. With a reasonably high economic growth in modern manufacturing and tertiary activities, as projected currently, there will be a shift of workers away from the low productive and household-based activities. The country has a big reservoir of semi-employed and home-based workers. The stress in the labour market could catalyse the process of skill development for them.

The other challenge is to create decent full or part-time work for people in the age group of 60 to 75 years. Presently their work participation is higher than most developing countries and the world because household survival strategies force them to enter the labour market. The imperative, instead, should be to relieve them from the drudgery of work while also providing decent employment. The country’s healthcare system needs to improve and building old age homes for the elderly single and couple is long overdue.

Strategies to link the elderly with their families are being considered a stronger option, given the Indian cultural context. The government could consider giving the family members a lump sum amount under the Shram Yogi Maandhan Yojana, after the demise of the member and spouse. The scheme has not become popular as there is no benefit for families at the demise of the members.

It seems that the panic button is being pressed for reasons that are not socioeconomic or related to demographic parameters. Nonetheless, it is important that a committee at the highest level is set up to analyse the trends and patterns of demographic transition in different states and work on a roadmap for the future.

The writer is Professor Emeritus at L J University, Ahmedabad