Opinion Meltdown in the Middle East
America cant win either way.
America cant win either way. If it interferes in the internal affairs of a country,it is condemned. But if,as in Egypt,it does not help remove an unpopular dictator like Mubarak,it is denounced for not interfering soon enough. But the present crisis in Egypt is a great moment. Ever since the Ottoman Empire fell apart in 1922,the Middle East has never been a stable place. UK and France had the upper hand as League of Nations Trustees in Syria,Iraq,Jordan,Lebanon and of course,Palestine. But these provinces of the Ottoman Empire did not become nations for a long time. Egypt was a kingdom under British suzerainty for a century and more. It had the greatest potential to be a nation. It was large and had potential riches.
Now in the 21st century,the Middle East is going through the fastest transition it has been for a century. The crucial events of 9/11 aroused USAs attention as never before. The main interest of USA is to help Israel and guarantee its security. For a long time,it tolerated dictators and Sultans regardless of any principles as long as cheap oil was available. But after 9/11,it realised that here was a potentially unstable situation.
The first and somewhat lethal reaction was the invasion of Iraq. Iraq had been used as an ally to contain Iran. After eight years of the bloodiest war of modern times,there was a stalemate. Iraq was forgiven its atrocities on the Kurds,its bombing at Halabja and its genocidal attack on the Shia Arab homeland of the Marshes. It was after its invasion of Kuwait that Saddam became a villain. When George W. Bush came to power,he was determined to change matters. The Neocons wanted to spread democracy everywhere in the Middle East as it had in Latin America during the last two decades of the 20th century.
Their first programme was a disaster. Iraq was invaded and the post war campaign was botched. But after eight years,Iraq has had two elections and a second stable democratic government has been established. Indeed the most recent election ended in a stalemate but after six months of negotiations,Nouri al Maliki has been reconfirmed as Prime Minister. This has been a patient,mature negotiation to confirm the government and while Iraq has had an interim government,things have carried on as normal.
My somewhat subversive thought is that it is Iraq which has inspired the Tunisian masses to throw off their dictatorship. Next has come Egypt and it is clear that it is not if but when Mubarak would go. We may yet see Jordan,Syria and Saudi going. None of these kings have any legitimacy or any pedigree. They were installed in their kingdoms by the British and the French,having been nothing better than horse thieves. Democracy is ovedue in the region. Iran missed the bus when the Shah was overthrown and ended up with a perverse theocracy. But the Arab world may yet see a contagion of democracy.
There are several myths spread about Muslims being unsuitable for democracy. Turkey is a Muslim country and a democracy though it also has a Constitution which insists on secularism being the guiding principle of Turkey. Indonesia and Malaysia have been democracies for sometime now. Bangladesh has had some decades of being a democracy except for short period of military intervention a few years ago. Democracy suits every culture and every race.
It is puzzling that while India has been a democracy and proud of it,it has never been a champion of democracy internationally. During its days of leadership of Non Aligned Movement,it gave succour to the worst dictators in the world as long as they were anti-American. The habit has not yet died. On the Egypt situation,India has been tongue tied till it was too late. How many more chances will it miss due to its mistaken idea that Indias Muslims love dictators in Arabia?
It is a pity that despite being a democracy,India has never been a champion of democracy abroad. Under NAM,it collaborated with some of the worst dictators as long as they were anti-American.
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