Opinion Intensity focus

CO2 intensity of GDP,CIG,measures how much CO2 is emitted per unit of GDP. India’s CIG is already half China’s: the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports CIG values of 0.61 for China and 0.33 for India for 2005 measured in kilogram per dollar of GDP (at constant,purchasing power parity terms).

So why is CIG important? Since every country,whether rich or poor,wants GDP growth,if total emissions of CO2 have to decrease then CIG has to go down.

How can CIG be reduced,and what determines a country’s CIG value?

First,the carbon intensity of the energy system: the more the use of coal,oil and gas in energy generation,the higher is the carbon intensity of the energy sector (and in that order). CIG is lower if renewable,nuclear- and hydro-power contribute significantly. India is a coal dependent country. So is China.

Then,there’s the energy intensity of the rest of the economy. Countries that produce steel,cement,fertilisers or petroleum have a higher CIG than those with a subsistence economy or personal services-based GDP.

India has a complex manufacturing base that includes all of the above. So does China.

Then,size: countries with a large area and population such as Canada,China,the US and Australia stand out with high CIG — but not India,an exception.

According to GDP per capita,too; at different stages of development,countries’ CIGs vary. Subsistence economies have a lower CIG and advanced economies higher — falling again with more development and high income. (Excepting the US and Canada,with CIGs higher than India’s.)

What does this mean in terms of climate negotiations for India? First of all,we have not stressed enough the many adverse conditions India faces. Despite being a large country in population and in area,with a coal-based energy system and a complex economy,India’s CIG is low,and has declined even compared to its own past. In 1991,CIG was already low; and yet it went down by 24 per cent by 2005.

Could this dream run continue? Our new infrastructure and manufacturing processes are likely to be more energy-efficient,helping CIG decline. But bridging the enormous gaps in power,roadways,airports and so on may result in a higher CIG.

Our emissions are currently 1.2 tonnes per person on the average,compared to a global figure of 4.2. But if our 600 million poor,who emit less than 300 kg per year,increase their emissions by 500 kg per person,CIG could increase as it may not be accompanied with an increase in GDP in the denominator — because it would be a consumption-based increase,unlike the production technology-based decrease discussed above.

India could reduce its CIG by more efficient power plants,buildings,lighting systems,more railway corridors and public transport,nuclear and solar energy,etc,all of which will have cost implications.

In any case,India should point out in any discussion that even if China reduces its intensity by 45 per cent in 2020,it will not reach India’s level today — because its CIG is twice that of India. Despite low per capita emissions and low carbon intensity at par with the developed countries in the EU,a coal-based energy system,a complex manufacturing and mining base,large area,large population and 600 million poor who will demand clean modern energy in future,if India is still promising cuts in carbon intensity,it is a gesture that very few developed countries or China or any other country has offered. (There are some who believe India is promising less than China,not knowing their CIG levels in 2005!)

These points need to be hammered home by the government. In negotiations,no sacrifices by others are enough and more is always demanded by all. Event-ually,the poor or our industries could lose out. While the announced intensity cuts may be within a feasible range,there are always unforeseen risks and costs. Another issue for political decision is ensuring what we get in return from others or playing our cards well at the right time. In any case,we need to do as much to highlight our performance and problems as to improve our record.

The writer is executive director of Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) and a member of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Council for Climate Change

express@expressindia.com

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