Opinion In France, a week is indeed a long time in politics

Those on the other side have vehemently criticised this move. The president of the far-right National Rally party (RN), Jordan Bardella, blasted the decision as “a bad joke, a democratic disgrace, and a humiliation for the French people.” The party’s figurehead, Marine Le Pen, called for the immediate vote out of Lecornu’s as-of-yet unannounced government and for new elections. Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of France’s far-left France Unbowed party (LFI), ridiculed Lecornu’s reappointment, adding, “Macron can do nothing other than Macron.”

This crisis is far from isolated, as it is rooted in complex economic challenges, societal pressures, and a fragmented political landscape shaped by Macron’s decisions and the rising strength of both the far-right and left-wing opposition. As France grapples with its future, the crisis also reverberates through its role within the European Union amid global tensions in Ukraine and Gaza.

The crisis: Past, present, and future

Lecornu’s resignation reflected a pattern of fragile governance. He stepped down after his latest cabinet, filled mainly with Macron loyalists, met fierce resistance across the political spectrum, including from Macron’s own coalition allies. This rejection underscored the volatile balance of power in the National Assembly, which remains deeply fractured, especially after Macron called for the snap polls in 2024. Since then, three prime ministers — Bayrou, Barnier, and Lecornu — have fallen victim to the untenable task of navigating internal divisions and passing essential budget reforms.

Central to the crisis is France’s fiscal fragility. The country’s deficit reached 5.8 per cent of its GDP in 2024, and its national debt is at 114 per cent of its GDP, making it one of the most indebted economies in Europe. Despite relatively strong economic growth compared to peers, investor fears have grown as France struggles to control its budget deficits. Borrowing costs have risen, hinting at possible contagion effects reminiscent of the Eurozone debt crises of the early 2010s. Macron’s government faces the unenviable challenge of reining in expenditures without sparking widespread public outrage.

Welfare spending is at the heart of the dilemma. France has one of the most generous social safety nets in Europe, accounting for 23.3 per cent of GDP, funding extensive pensions, healthcare, unemployment benefits, and family support. The attempts at tightening this system through pension reforms, raising the retirement age to 64, have provoked large-scale strikes and popular dissent. The country’s revenue from taxation and social contributions is the highest in the EU at 45.6 per cent of GDP. Macron’s prior cuts to wealth and business taxes, combined with proposals for additional levies like eco-taxes, have fed perceptions of social inequity and government disconnect from ordinary citizens, thus further complicating reforms.

Lecornu’s resignation cast a shadow over the drafting of the 2026 budget, which is critical for deficit reduction. His caretaker stewardship and Macron’s subsequent reappointment highlight a government trapped in inertia, unable to secure parliamentary consensus. Without decisive reform, France risks entering a protracted phase of instability, which is a worrying prospect for Europe’s third-largest economy, facing mounting internal and external pressures.

The far-right’s rise

The political stalemate gains sharper contours when viewed through the lens of France’s polarised electoral landscape. The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Le Pen and her successors, has surged over the past decade, building a potent challenge to the traditional parties. RN’s dominance became stark in the 2024 European Parliament elections, where it claimed over 31 per cent of the vote, outperforming Macron’s centrist Renew party (approximately 15 per cent) by more than double.

Macron’s initiation of the 2024 snap polls post-EU elections to halt RN’s momentum and restore political stability, instead, exposed the fragility of his own mandate. Macron’s government has struggled to pass budgets or maintain stable administrations. Public dissatisfaction with austerity measures and perceived elitism has driven Macron’s approval below 20 per cent in recent months.

Alongside Macron’s dwindling approval numbers, some of the recent polling data reflect the growing strength of the RN. The far-right party trends at approximately 35 per cent, followed by the left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP) at approximately 24 per cent and Macron’s RE ensemble at approximately 14 per cent.

The far-right’s appeal endures despite Le Pen’s legal troubles connected to campaign finance, which temporarily barred her from office. RN’s narrative portrays Macron’s government as an elite disconnected from the concerns of ordinary people, exploiting economic uncertainty and fears over immigration and globalisation. Meanwhile, the far-left weaponises discontent over welfare cuts and rising inequality, pushing mass strikes and demonstrations. This intense polarisation undermines prospects for compromise, deepening the government’s legislative paralysis.

What does the future look like?

The repercussions of this crisis extend beyond France’s borders. The increasing parliamentary strength of RN poses questions about France’s commitment to the EU project. Rising nationalism and Euroscepticism threaten to complicate European unity at a time when coordinated action is vital, especially concerning the war in Ukraine. France’s geopolitical influence as a leading EU member hinges on political stability and internal coherence, both currently in jeopardy.

Macron’s ability to restore trust and drive consensus will determine not only his legacy but also France’s future role on the European stage. The country’s economy, burdened by debt and social demands, requires deft leadership to balance reform with social solidarity. Political fragmentation and polarisation risk continuing gridlock, challenging France’s governance model and straining its EU partnerships.

The writer is a political analyst and German Chancellor Fellow (2023–24) based between New Delhi and Berlin