Opinion Glaring across the DMZ
Attitudes are hardening dangerously on the Korean peninsula....
The 60th anniversary of the Korean War is on June 25; but the two halves are still pitted against each other in a war-like situation,with the North still continuing to threaten to reduce the South into a sea of flames. Nothing much seems to have changed in the Norths acts of terrorism over the last 60 years. In the 1960s and 1970s those were a reaction to the consolidation of power by the South Korean president; in the 80s they were a reaction to South Korea gaining recognition in the world as a growing economic power. In the 90s they were aimed at the international community,particularly the United States,which it wanted out of the region. Now,after a brief period of reprieve,it has once again targeted South Korea by torpedoing one of its naval ships killing 46 of the 104 naval officers on board. As on all other occasions Pyongyang has denied the act.
There could be many reasons why it has chosen this tactic. Firstly,it could be to avenge its defeat in the battle of Daecheong between the two naval forces in the West Sea last year. In the exchange of fire a North Korean patrol boat was completely damaged and the North sustained some casualties,while the South sustained none. Having made seongun,or military first his main policy,Kim Jong-Il,the North Korean supremo,might have felt the need to salvage the humiliation suffered by his naval officers last year. He cannot ignore the feelings of the military,as they are the most significant power in the country and he needs their support for the smooth transfer of power to his third son Kim Jong-Eun.
Secondly,it could be the age-old way the North Korean head shows displeasure towards goings-on in the South. The North cannot ignore the international standing that the South has gained by hosting the G-20 meet. In addition,President Lee Myung-Bak has been taking a hard stand against the North. Their relationship is back to what it was soon after the War blaring propaganda broadcasts across the demarcation line,et al.
A third reason could be that it was an attempt to divert attention from the domestic chaos resulting from the failed currency reform attempted by Kim Jong-Il last year. He seems to be losing his grip on power within the nation,partly because of failed policies and partly because of his failing health. Rumours which are all we have suggest that theres a division of power happening within North Korea which could either bode good or could completely boomerang if Kim Jong-Il has to hand over power suddenly.
Post the Cheonan incident,in which a 1,200-tonne patrol ship was torpedoed and split into two,the investigations conducted by the joint civil-military group of military experts from the US,the UK,Australia and Sweden,besides South Korea,confirmed that the ship was attacked and sunk by a midget submarine with North Korean markings. The situation on the peninsula is slowly escalating; and South Korea is cultivating international opinion while it awaits moves by the UN security council. The ruling partys defeat in the local elections about ten days ago has made President Lee Myung-Bak temper down its stance. The UN also will not be able to impose sanctions on the North Korean state as two major veto-holding powers,China and Russia,have not accepted the findings of the investigation team.
Either China does not believe the investigations conclusion,or it is taking this stand as a precaution after what happened last year. China supported the Security Councils Resolution 1874 advocating sanctions on North Korea when the latter launched missiles and conducted an underground nuclear test. North Korea became belligerent and the Chinese government had to face a lot of internal pressure from the party and the army about how to rein in the North Korean regime. Russia probably does not want to escalate matters on its borders either. The situation has been defused for now. But the question still remains: how does the international community deal with countries that do not stick to international codes of conduct?
Incidentally,June 15 also marked the tenth anniversary of the signing of the North-South Declaration between the two Koreas. The two had agreed to solve the question of their reunification independently,without outside help. Is the Cheonan incident going to be treated as a domestic issue to be handled by the two sides or is it going to be treated as one which needs global action because of its wider implications?
The writer,an Associate Professor at JNU,specialises in Korean Studies.
express@expressindia.com
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