Opinion From ‘M-Y’ to ‘M+M-Y’, a slight shift in RJD’s Bihar poll strategy

Candidate nomination by political parties offers an important window to understand their distinct electoral strategies. For Bihar 2025, the RJD has not made any significant changes in the caste composition of its candidates from the previous election. It has nominated the highest number of candidates from the Yadav caste (53). Recently, this kind of nomination has begun to create anti-Yadav polarisation. The lion’s share of Yadavs in the OBC reservation has been one reason for this, but their local hooliganism has been another important factor (including caste-based Bhojpuri songs that support Tejashwi Yadav and glorify violence).

Previously, the BJP successfully used such things in its favour to mobilise marginalised castes. To counter this, Akhilesh Yadav adopted a strategy in Uttar Pradesh, where his party substantially reduced the nomination of Yadavs in the 2024 general election. His focus on non-Yadav backward castes made the SP successful.

Tejashwi has shown hesitation to adopt Akhilesh’s nomination strategy. There might be two reasons for this. Firstly, the strike rate of the RJD’s Yadav candidates in the 2020 election was higher than of candidates from all other castes. In the 2020 election, the RJD nominated 50 candidates from the Yadav caste, out of which 36 won. So, the party has taken a rational decision. Secondly, unlike Akhilesh, Tejashwi might not be confident that the Yadavs would vote for him upon the reduction of tickets. Nevertheless, the RJD might face anti-Yadav polarisation for the disproportionate representation of the Yadav caste among its candidates.

Tejashwi seems to have learned from Akhilesh how to manage caste-based minority parties. The latter gave a fair share to such parties (Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal) in seat distribution during the 2022 assembly election. But these parties switched sides after the election. Hence, Tejashwi remained firm on not providing seats to such parties in Bihar.

The support of EBCs has become crucial for winning elections. This social group has become a strong support base of the Janata Dal (United). To address this, the RJD nominated 19 candidates from this group in the 2020 election, but only four won. Therefore, the party has reduced the EBC nomination in this election and adopted different strategies for securing their support. Firstly, it has appointed a senior leader from this community, Mangani Lal Mandal, as its state president. Secondly, it organised specific rallies for these communities. Thirdly, it has launched a separate policy manifesto for them. Fourthly, it is supporting the candidature of those EBC leaders, such as I P Gupta and Mukesh Sahani, who have a strong hold in their caste groups. Gupta is demanding the inclusion of his Tanti/Tatva caste in the SC list, and hence, he has gained popularity. Similarly, Sahani proclaims himself to be the “Son of Mallah”, which has made him popular in the fisherman community.

The Congress wanted a declaration of Dalit and Muslim deputy CMs. But the RJD was reluctant to do so. It is also mindful of the rise of another leader who might pose a challenge to Tejashwi Yadav in the long run. This was one of the reasons why Kanhaiya Kumar, who figures in the list of star campaigners of the Congress, was made to contest the Lok Sabha election from Delhi rather than Bihar. Nevertheless, Mukesh Sahani has been announced as one of the deputy CM faces because he was demanding not seats, but the announcement of his candidacy for this post. His party had four MLAs in the 2020 election, but all of them joined the BJP. Sahani has learnt the lesson that instead of bargaining for seats in an alliance, it is better to ask for a position straightaway.

The RJD has been traditionally labelled as a party of Muslims and Yadavs (M-Y). Together, both communities constitute nearly one-third of the state’s population. Tejashwi Yadav has tried to downplay this identity by declaring the RJD to be the party of A to Z. However, the new identity does not reflect in the candidate nomination strategy. Nevertheless, by declaring Mukesh Sahani as one of the deputy CM candidates, the RJD has added one more M to the M-Y bloc. It would be interesting to see how this strategy pays off at the ballot box.

The writer is Visiting Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of Hertfordshire and Associate Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, University of London