Opinion Fix the coordinates

policy burden for Obama.

Pakistan,which is at the heart of US strategy in Afghanistan,is sliding down a slippery slope. Note the militant attacks on military and civilian targets across Pakistan over the last few days aimed at undermining the GHQ’s commitment to America and the world on confronting the extremists in their Waziristan redoubt.

Meanwhile,as the first anniversary of the Mumbai carnage

approaches,there has been no progress in Pakistan on bringing those who plotted the attack to book. Nor has Islamabad given any credible assurances on preventing its soil from being used against India.

Despite New Delhi’s unfolding war of words with Beijing on Tibet and Tawang and Kashmir,it is the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan that poses the real and present danger to India. The recent bombing at the Indian Embassy in Kabul — the second in about 15 months — is an ominous signal that another spectacular attack on soft urban targets in India may be round the corner.

As multiple crises brew across the Indus,here is a strange antinomy that confronts Dr Singh and Obama. On the one hand,the principal national security threats to the United States and India emanate from the Af-Pak region. On the other hand,there is a strange reluctance in New Delhi and Washington to begin a genuine dialogue,let alone cooperation,on the shared security threats they confront in the north-western marches of the subcontinent.

To be sure,there has been unprecedented cooperation between the US and Indian intelligence agencies in the wake of the Mumbai attacks last year. That valued cooperation is no guarantee against further terror attacks being organised and promoted from Pakistan.

A crisis,according to the White House,is too important to be wasted. Since he took charge of America amidst a financial turmoil,Obama has used the moment to force fundamental changes in the US,for example,on health care.

The same can be said of the Af-Pak crisis that stares at Dr Singh and Obama and presents a rare opportunity for Indo-US cooperation to transform the turbulent lands between the Indus and the Hindu Kush.

Any exploration of such cooperation must be premised on three important factors: an American recognition of India’s enduring national security interests in Afghanistan; an Indian acknowledgement that American defeat in Afghanistan would empower extremist radicalism and inflame the subcontinent; and an acceptance of the reality that neither New Delhi nor Washington can achieve its objectives in Pakistan by pursuing separate policies.

Three potential areas of Indo-US cooperation can be conceived. The first is an expanded Indian role in the security of Afghanistan. This does not mean India sending a division of its army into Afghanistan — that red herring has only served Pakistani propaganda against India. It is not an offer that Washington will ever make and New Delhi accept.

Where India can make a real contribution is in the training of Afghan security forces. India already has a modest training mission that can be expanded significantly as the US decides on a new strategy and puts special emphasis on rapidly strengthening the Afghan armed forces and police.

Second,there is a strong view in Washington that India can contribute to the stabilisation of Afghanistan by improving its relations with Pakistan. This proposition is not contested by New Delhi,which had invested so much diplomatic energy in resolving the conflict with Pakistan during 2004-07.

Since 2007,New Delhi has had to come to terms with the reality that the Pakistan army and the ISI have slowly but surely destroyed a core assumption of the peace process — that Islamabad will stop its support to cross-border terrorism.

If Washington can persuade Islamabad to shut down its terror machine — an outcome that is in the interest not just of India,but also of the US — New Delhi may be ready to walk more than half way to clinch many agreements that it already has negotiated with Pakistan.

The third is a triangular agreement between Kabul,Islamabad and New Delhi on expanding overland trade and transit and modernisation of historic transport infrastructure between the three countries. Such a move would at once unlock the economic potential of the Af-Pak region as an economic bridge between South Asia,the Persian Gulf and Central Asia.

Once such a trilateral framework is in place,India and the US could join hands to support a wider international effort to stabilise Afghanistan and Pakistan. The idea of great

powers underwriting a regional framework for the Af-Pak region is now widely acknowledged as central to any endgame in Afghanistan.

No such initiative,however,will work without a solid kernel of cooperation between Kabul,Islamabad and New Delhi. Exploring the prospects for that regional reconciliation must be the centrepiece of the meeting between Dr Singh and Obama.

A mutual understanding on the future of the trans-Indus territories will make it a whole lot easier for Dr Singh and Obama to put in place the many other pieces they need to found a solid Indo-US strategic partnership.

The writer is Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and

International Relations at the Library of Congress,Washington,DC express@expressindia.com