Opinion Exiting EU

The British never learned to love the continental customs union that demanded a pooling of sovereignty and has become increasingly associated with bureaucracy and spending. It has now become a major headache for Prime Minister David Cameron — and his response could mean a British exit.

The EU subsidises its farmers,funds infrastructure in member states and issues countless rules to preserve environmental,consumer and employment standards. It has gained more powers over the years and many British politicians resent the loss of national control and fear that it has become too big and intrusive,with its own overseas diplomatic service,currency and Court of Justice.

Cameron’s Conservative Party is especially wary,partly because they blame the EU for the downfall of their heroine,Margaret Thatcher. Cameron has never been as ideologically opposed to the EU as many of his members of Parliament,but with Eurosceptic leadership rivals openly talking of leaving the EU,he has been driven to increasingly drastic action.

In a major speech in January,Cameron promised to reform the EU by taking some powers back for national parliaments and completing its project for an open market in goods and services. There will then be a referendum in 2017 on whether Britain should continue as a member. Cameron does not want to hold a vote sooner because the EU is in a state of flux as the 17 members who joined the euro decide how to fix the currency’s fundamental problems. The PM is also prevented from legislating for a quicker referendum by his coalition partners,the Liberal Democrats.

But Cameron’s 2017 promise did not satisfy many of his MPs,who were angry that the latest government programme did not prepare for the referendum. Last week,he caved in to pressure from them to publish a draft Referendum Bill,even though it has no chance of success in Parliament.

Across Europe,there is alarm at the prospect that Britain could leave. But opinion polls suggest that the British public are fed up and could well vote to quit if Cameron returns as PM at the next election and gets to put his referendum plan into practice. The most recent opinion poll showed 30 per cent would vote to stay and 47 per cent to leave. But just after Cameron made his big speech the numbers were much closer together,suggesting that when the EU is seriously debated in the media,more people are likely to vote to support it. That was the case in 1975,when Britain last held a referendum on its membership. Voters decided by two-to-one to remain in.

But 2017 will not be like 1975 for several reasons,including Europe’s terrible economic situation,uncertainty at what developments lie in store following the rapid expansion in the EU’s size and powers and the rise of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) as a political force. The UKIP was formed 20 years ago to pull Britain out of the EU and this year,has found itself transformed from a small single-issue group to the country’s main protest party,backed by a quarter of voters in last month’s local elections. The UKIP’s rise does not mean that the British public have suddenly become much more anti-EU — it attracts mainly ex-Conservative voters but also draws support from the other parties because of a general disappointment with mainstream politicians and anger at other issues such as immigration and generous welfare payments. Conservative MPs facing the loss of their seats because of voters switching to the UKIP are putting pressure on Cameron to be even tougher on Europe to deprive the party of its core raison d’etre. The Labour Party,which is ahead in the polls,is refusing to say where it stands on a future referendum,accusing the Conservatives of destabilisation by talking of a vote four years hence.

Just when Cameron least needed it,Thatcher has intervened from beyond the grave. Her biographer,Charles Moore,said she believed that Britain should leave the EU,but was counselled by advisers not to say this openly because “it would have allowed her opponents to drive her to the fringes of public life.” This would no longer be the case today. Several senior figures,including two members of Cameron’s cabinet,have recently said they would vote to leave the EU. It is no longer taboo to talk of this in Britain. Given the choice,a referendum will be too close to call despite the unforeseeable long-term consequences for the economy and Britain’s standing in the world.

Charter is the Berlin correspondent for ‘The Times’,London and author of ‘Au Revoir,Europe: What if Britain left the EU?’