Opinion Endangered species
Recent statements from the leaders of Shiv Sena against Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi,film actor Shah Rukh Khan...
Recent statements from the leaders of Shiv Sena against Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi,film actor Shah Rukh Khan,and industrialist Mukesh Ambani will hardly help the party in winning back the support base which it lost over the last few years. The stand can been seen as an effort to woo Marathi-speakers and to bring back to its fold the traditional urban,Marathi-speaking and OBC voters. The Shiv Sena ruled Maharashtra in alliance with the BJP from 1995 to1999; since then they have lost three assembly elections (1999,2004 and 2009) in a row to the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) combine.
Results of the last two Assembly and Lok Sabha elections indicate that the Shiv Sena is on a decline. Though it has remained out of power since 1999,the partys popularity increased marginally. Its vote share in seats which it contested increased in both Assembly and Lok Sabha elections between 1999 and 2004. During the Assembly elections,its vote share in contested seats increased from 27.6 per cent in 1995 to 34.9 per cent during the 2004 elections. There were similar trends during the Lok Sabha elections as well.
But its popularity declined between 2004 and 2009 mainly due to the fact that it split. A sizeable number of votes shifted towards the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Nav Nirman Sena (MNS). During the 2009 Lok Sabha elections,the MNS polled 4.1 per cent of the votes and its vote share increased to 5.7 percent during the Assembly elections that were held a few months after the Lok Sabha elections. Clearly the Shiv Sena suffered badly at the hands of the MNS.
Between the last two Assembly elections,the vote share of the Shiv Sena in the state declined by nearly three percentage points. The decline in the vote share of the party is much bigger (five percentage points) if seen only in those seats where the party put up its candidates. Findings of a survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS),indicate that except amongst the adivasis,the Shiv Sena lost support amongst all other communities. The decline in the support base of the Shiv Sena amongst the Maratha Kunbi and upper castes was sharper,when compared to the decline among other communities. Surveys also indicate that,during the 2009 Assembly elections,the MNS received sizeable support from voters of these communities. Amongst the Maratha Kunbis,7 per cent voted for the MNS while amongst the upper caste voters,7 per cent voted Raj. The MNS also made inroads amongst the OBC support base of the Shiv Sena. The Shiv Sena lost sizeable support amongst urban voters,though the support base for the Shiv Sena declined more amongst the urban rich as compared to the urban poor.
There is hardly any doubt that the biggest beneficiary was the MNS,which badly damaged the Senas prospects in urban constituencies. The MNS popularity increased between the 2009 Lok sabha and Assembly elections mainly due to its increasing popularity amongst urban voters: its total vote share increased marginally,by 1.6 per cent,but in urban constituencies it increased by 5 per cent. Between the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections held in the state within a short gap of less than six months,the party managed to increase its popularity amongst all sections of urban voters,mainly by cutting into the Shiv Senas support base.
Though at the moment,the MNS support is limited to the Mumbai-Thane region where during the 2009 Assembly elections,it polled more votes than the Shiv Sena the party is seen as a pan-Maharashtra threat by the Shiv Sena leaders.
By taking up the issue of the Marathi Manoos,the Shiv Sena is trying hard to project itself as a party which cares most for this constituency. This will create a social divide in the state from which the Shiv Sena is hoping to reap political benefits. Such divisive political strategies may bring short gains,but certainly this cannot be a successful mobilisation strategy for the party in the ling run.
The writer is a fellow at CSDS,Delhi
Share
