Opinion Don’t write off China yet

The lesson from past crackdowns was to apply even more decentralised tactics. Today’s organisers — who seek to launch a “molihua” (jasmine) revolution — have used social networks like Sina Weibo (the Chinese equivalent of Twitter),Facebook and Google groups to spark public meetings in large cities in every province over the past two weeks. In doing so,organisers have tapped into a traditional method of crowd gathering known as wei guan. The words literally mean “surround and stare,” but they also connote a willingness to participate. It’s a kind of street democracy,with impromptu public juries declaring their binding verdicts on how civic disputes should be resolved,refusing to allow the antagonists to leave until the group’s judgment is enforced.

“We were raised glorifying Chairman Mao’s guerrilla warfare tactics,” says Flower Girl,the online pseudonym of one of the organisers. “Hit and run,hide among the people like fish in water,advance when your adversary retreats and retreat when they advance,hide and bide: hide your resources and bide your time. It’s poetic justice that we’re using the very strategies that brought the Communist Party to power — but nonviolently,to demonstrate how far the party has strayed from its grassroots origin as a people’s movement. Its brutal response clearly illustrates why political change in China is necessary.” Will this protest effort succeed in China? It’s hard to say. But it has produced predictable results. Dozens of civil rights lawyers have been beaten and detained in recent weeks,political dissidents placed under house arrest,social activists harassed,and the word “jasmine” banned by China’s Internet censors.

An online call on February 20 for people to gather in central locations in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and several other major cities to celebrate the “Jasmine revolutions” in Egypt,Tunisia,Libya and other Arab states resulted in a massive security crackdown. When the gatherings took place,police,foreign reporters and curious passersby significantly augmented the number of participants. Scuffles and arrests took place but there were no major incidents.

Then came a call to congregate again,on February 27. This time organisers urged people to gather in several dozen city centres at 2 pm and “stroll” together. Crowds gathered in dozens of cities and China’s security apparatus responded with overwhelming force. Numerous foreign journalists were detained and beaten,and dozens of Chinese citizens were dragged away for incarceration and interrogation. But the effort achieved its objective — attracting increased attention by Chinese citizens unaware of the events in the Arab world due to heavy government censorship of mainland media. Another “stroll” has been publicised for March 6,and each Sunday thereafter.

Can these “Sunday strolls” have any effect on China’s seemingly indomitable apparatus of repression and authoritarian rule? Although many people would scoff at the notion,this was how Poland’s Solidarity movement,the first independent worker’s union in a Communist-bloc country,was formed.

Many people argue that the rapid fall of Communism in Eastern Europe and then the Soviet Union won’t happen in China because the Chinese are uniquely unsuited for democracy due to their long Confucian traditions and history of authoritarian rule.

Of course,the same was said of Arabs until the events of the past two months. In fact,China held parliamentary elections after the fall of the Qing dynasty’s last emperor in the early 20th century. But warlordism,the Japanese invasion and decade-long occupation,and Mao’s Communist Revolution suffocated this early effort at democracy.

Few people expected the explosive events in Egypt,Tunisia,Libya,Bahrain and the other Arab states. Perhaps governments,both in the West and Beijing,should prepare for the unexpected in China.ARCHER WANG & SCOTT SAVITT