Opinion Don’t leave alone

To date,efforts to achieve a political settlement have been devoted mainly to building support for the so-called reconciliation process: reaching out to the Taliban and other disaffected Afghans to come to some political accommodation with the current government. Whether bin Laden’s elimination will increase the prospects for this remains to be seen. Some top insurgent leaders may be more willing to make a deal,with an eye toward self-preservation; others may conclude that with bin Laden gone,the US and NATO won’t be far behind. But even if successful,a new internal political settlement will not be sufficient to assure long-term stability. What is required is a new external political settlement,one that brings the country’s neighbours and near neighbours into the process.

Historically,Afghanistan’s troubles have been,for the most part,caused by external interference and intervention,as well as by Afghan parties inviting foreign elements to take part in their internecine conflicts.

The importance of minimising,if not totally eliminating,interference from outside parties was recognised by Afghan and other international participants at the Bonn Conference in December 2001,soon after the Taliban were ousted. The declaration adopted by the conference included a request that “the UN and the international community take the necessary measures to guarantee the national sovereignty,territorial integrity and unity of Afghanistan as well as the non-interference by foreign countries in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.”

Over the past decade,there have been numerous calls for “regional cooperation” at international gatherings but there has been little action.

Since the UN secretary-general already has the mandate in the Bonn Declaration,he should appoint a person of high political stature and experience to focus exclusively on an external political settlement for Afghanistan,one that leads to a regional compact on non-interference and non-intervention. A similar UN special envoy was appointed for the 1988 Geneva Accord,a move that led to the Soviet withdrawal.

It must be an inclusive process,including all states in the region and beyond that will play a critical role in stabilising Afghanistan’s future,especially those that have suspicions and rivalries with one another. Pakistan and India come to mind,as do the United States and Iran,and Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The regional agreement must provide for a mechanism to monitor its implementation. It should also address matters that have critical regional importance and opportunities for cooperation: combating drug trafficking and production; assisting refugee populations; and facilitating commerce,transit and energy flows throughout the region. The latter would underscore the potential benefits for all in the region of a secure,stable and prosperous Afghanistan.

Clearly,negotiating such an external political agreement will take considerable time and high-level effort. In the meantime,should the US want to be more proactive,it may want to consider a proposal recently offered by former Secretary of State James Baker: “Why don’t we pull together a conference of China,India,Pakistan,Russia,Iran — Iran helped us when we first went into Afghanistan — and the United States and say… you guys have every bit as much of an interest in a stable Afghanistan as we do… We might get some help.”

Help from all quarters will be essential as the beginning of the endgame commences.

Inderfurth was US assistant secretary of state for South Asia. Gharekhan was India’s special envoy for the Middle East and is a former UN undersecretary-general