Opinion Counter coup

The coup suspicion is grounded in an article published in Taraf,a fiercely anti-military publication. While the military has admitted that a meeting was held,it nevertheless insists this was merely a routine training seminar designed to serve as the basis for a war-gaming scenario similar to those carried out in other NATO countries on how the military could react to a national emergency and the collapse of the government. The government’s opponents believe this is a politically-motivated attempt to weaken an institution that has long regarded itself as the ultimate guardian of secularism in Turkey. The government,on the other hand,is run by the Justice and Development Party (AKP),which is considered Islamist,though moderately.

•What are the larger implications?

The self-proclaimed guardian of Kemal Ataturk’s secular legacy,the Turkish army overthrew democratic governments four times in 50 years and hanged an elected prime minister. Yet,every election brought to power,under a new name,the same party which was outlawed. The turning point came with the AKP’s landslide victory in 2002. Led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan,AKP scored a second triumph in the 2007 election and then went on to make constitutional changes that limited the army’s role and turned the all-powerful National Security Council into an advisory body. The government’s move indicates a shifting balance of power.

•What will be the international impact?

Between 1945 and 1990,Turkish leaders consciously avoided involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts. In 1990,Turkey broke with that tradition and allied with the US-led coalition confronting Iraq following its invasion and annexation of Kuwait. Turkish troops are deployed in Afghanistan as part of the NATO camp. The consequences of political instability in Turkey will reverberate in the Middle East,Europe and the Caucasus. Western,and particularly American,policymakers need a Turkey strategy that goes well beyond getting Ankara to help in Afghanistan,Pakistan and the Middle East.

•Will this impact Turkey’s chances of EU membership?

The European Union has long debated the merits of Turkish EU membership. But now,nearly a decade after Islamists took the reins of power in Ankara,the central question is no longer whether Turkey should be integrated into Europe’s economic and political structure,but whether Turkey should remain a part of the Western defence structure. While Turkey’s military leadership remains committed to the state’s secular,Western orientation and the defining principles of the NATO,the AKP seems to have different ideas. Ankara is said to be increasingly pursuing illiberal policies at home,for instance attacking the independent media,while aligning itself with militant,anti-Western Middle East regimes abroad.

Negotiations were started in 2005,and the process,should it be in Turkey’s favour,is likely to take at least a decade to complete. Turkey’s supporters argue it is a key regional power with a large economy and the second largest military force of NATO. These features will enhance the EU’s position as a global geostrategic player. The army,therefore is cautious as it seems to be aware of the fact that the EU is watching Turkey’s internal developments closely and that another military intervention at this stage will rule out the possibility of EU membership for the country.