The Royal Wedding was just a distraction from the serious business of politics. When the coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats was negotiated,the result was a long formal agreement on which all their policies would be based. The jewel in this for the Liberal Democrats was the promise to have a referendum on the voting system. As far back as anyone can recall,the Liberals have been obsessed about the voting system. Their complaint is that they have a larger proportion of total votes at each election20 per centthan their share of seatsless than 10 per cent. They blame this on First Past The Post (FPTP,the system India uses). They argue that in a multi-cornered contest,the winner often wins less than 51 per cent; ergo,more voters are against the winner than for. Large parties win disproportionately more seats. Smaller parties get a message that voters think a vote for them is a wasted vote. Of course,the true reason is unequal size of parties,unequal size of constituencies and uneven spread of party support across the electorate. India had one party dominance for all elections except 1977. Congress got 40 per cent of votes and 65 per cent plus of seats. Since 1989,there has been much greater proportionality between seats and vote shares since the Congress no longer gets more than 30 per cent of the votes. India has arrived at de facto Proportional Representation (PR) despite using FPTP. The date for the Referendum is Thursday,May 5,and the choice is between FPTP and AV which is Alternative Vote. You rank candidates in order of preference. If the top candidates does not get 51 per cent on first preferences,you eliminate the one with the least votes and divide his/her second preferences among the remaining candidates. You do this until one candidate gets more than 51 per cent.
The campaign for the Referendum has been getting quite vicious. Coalition partners decided that each would be free to vote as they like. The Conservatives dont like AV and will vote No. The Labour Party is split. It had promised to hold a referendum had it won,but then didnt win so they are officially off the hook. Some,including the Leader Ed Miliband,support AV,but many dont. The campaign has been quite heated on both sides. The polls show that No may win and hence the level of abuse and vituperation has been rising. Nick Clegg,Deputy PM and leader of Lib Dems has accused the No voters of wanting to perpetuate a right wing reactionary conspiracy which has offended the Labour people who want to vote No. It has also strained relations between the coalition partners.
If on May 5,the No vote wins,then the Lib Dems will have an internal party rebellion. Their rank and file embarrassed at being in power,(an experience the party has not had for sixty years) will feel that the only prize they wanted from power has been denied to them. They may walk out of the government,triggering an election. If that happens,it is quite likely that the Conservatives will win a slim majority on their own in the election. Only the Tories have the money to fight. Labour is deeply in debt (British political parties have to publish their accounts. No black money allowed). The Lib Dems would be wiped out. This would be seen as a Machiavellian masterstroke on part of David Cameron who offered a partnership to the Lib Dems when everyone expected Labour to do so. He took the risk and may profit from it.The moral of the story is clear. Send your son to Eton and he will learn how to rule the country. Now,why cant Doon School assure us that?
