Opinion Calling on Kathmandu

Recently,Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai moved a constitution amendment bill that would have enabled him to form an expert panel that would recommend the number of provinces to be created in a new federal Nepal and the modalities for it. But members of several ethnic and indigenous groups,cutting across party lines and defying party whips,have blocked its passage. They want a guarantee that the provinces will be created on the basis of,and named after,dominant ethnic groups. Along with the creation of ethnicity-based states,the groups also demand control over natural resources,mainly forests,as it was in Nepal’s pre-unification days,that is before 1768. These demands and the groups’ open confrontation with political parties are making things difficult for the Bhattarai government.

Despite its unambiguous support to Bhattarai to take the peace process forward,the international community is aware of the gap between what it wants and what is happening on the ground. As Nepal negotiates its way to clinch a new constitution,world leaders are not just watching,but planning their visit to Kathmandu.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already told Bhattarai that he would be visiting Nepal in March,14 years after the last bilateral visit by an Indian prime minister. (Atal Bihari Vajpayee went to Kathmandu in 2002 to attend the Saarc summit.)

British Prime Minister David Cameroon too has expressed a similar willingness. If that happens,he will be the first British prime minister to visit Nepal. Queen Elizabeth II had visited what was then a kingdom in 1986,exactly 25 years after her first visit.

These are not going to be pleasure trips,and no matter what comes out of these visits,and that uncertainly stems out of political instability in Kathmandu,both Cameron and Dr Singh have sent the message to Nepal that the fate of the peace process and the constitution-making process continue to be areas of concern for them.

With Nepal’s political parties faltering and often failing miserably,the international community realises that it has a stake in the outcome. They have been very visibly involved in Nepal during its transition to democracy and have,of course,extended assistance in the peace and constitution-making processes. That involvement,many criticised,was more brazen than what the people of any sovereign country would possibly appreciate. And now,the international community too is receiving its fair share of flak and is being lumped as a “failure” along with the internal actors that they have supported all these years.

In the midst of all these,Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has set a date for his bilateral visit,December 20-22,the first from the northern neighbour since 2001. China’s stance has been different. It has said that it wants Nepal to complete the peace process and the drafting of the constitution on its own,in a “meaningful” way. Beijing has always wanted Nepal to shun outside interferences in the process. At least nine ministers are likely to accompany Wen,signalling that several agreements may be signed,making it a player as big and as important as India is. China may also indicate what

exactly will make the conclusion of the twin process “meaningful”.

China’s interest in Nepal has grown manifold since the abolition of monarchy. Now it is building institutional relations with Nepal’s army and the police. It has also hinted that it will like to take the lead in Nepal’s development and stability,and talk to “India whenever necessary”,something that appears like a reversal of the traditional role of Nepal’s neighbours. The impending high-level visits are clearly a sign of their concern that all is not well in Nepal.

yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com