Opinion Trump’s claims on India’s oil imports from Russia underline Delhi’s challenge

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump once again raised the contentious issue of India’s energy imports from Russia. While his unhappiness at India’s oil purchases is well known, what came as a surprise was the claim that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had “assured” him that India would stop buying oil from Russia. “That’s a big step,” he said. While India’s Ministry of External Affairs has said it is not aware of any conversation between the two leaders Wednesday, Trump’s comments following his first statement — “There will be no oil, he’s not buying his oil from Russia… you know, you can’t do it immediately, it’s a little bit of a process, but the process is going to be over with soon” — acknowledge that any diversification away from a big supplier is a “process”. This also opens up crucial space in which Delhi can negotiate. It will need to be tactful, however, as it pushes ahead, while taking care not to come under pressure from the Opposition either to counter Trump’s claims, or to give in to the temptation to grandstand for the domestic audience.

India has not bowed under pressure from the White House, even as a tariff rate of 50 per cent has been imposed on its exports to the US market. Oil imports from Russia have been holding steady. As per data from Kpler, in September, oil imports were around 1.6 million barrels per day, down 5 per cent from August, but as of October 10, imports averaged around 1.81 million barrels. However, the pain from the levy of the tariff and the penalty is being felt. As per data released a few days ago, India’s exports to the US fell by 12 per cent in September. While India should not compromise on its strategic autonomy, and must safeguard its energy security, it should also factor in changes to the cost-benefit matrix of relying to such an extent on one supplier. It could look at increasing energy procurement from the US. This would only deepen the relationship. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal is reported to have said that “there is headroom of around $12-15 billion, which we can purchase without worrying about the configuration of refineries”.

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There are other points of convergence as well between the two countries. Only a few days ago, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that America expects support from “Europe, India and other Asian democracies” as it pushes back against China’s controls on exports of critical minerals. This indicates an alignment in priorities, increasing the space for manoeuvre. As India seeks to conclude its trade deal with the US, it must skilfully navigate the various points of contention that have arisen. This is a crucial period in India-US relations. It must tread carefully.