Opinion Axing Zardari
A fortnightly column on the high politics of the Af-Pak region,the fulcrum of global power play in Indias neighbourhood
It is always easy to underestimate Pakistans capacity to muddle through crises that outsiders consider impossible to navigate. Nevertheless,there is a growing sense that the multiple crises confronting Pakistan today might lead to an internal political rearrangement in the near future. A little over half-way through its five-year term,the luck of the civilian political dispensation led by Asif Ali Zardari might be running out. Going by the record that no recent civilian government was allowed to complete a full five year term,the betting must be that a regime change is at hand in Islamabad.
The frontal assault on Zardari comes from the judiciary,led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. The Supreme Court is forcing the government to reopen the corruption cases against Zardari that were taken off the table as part of a political deal that was negotiated between the Pakistan Peoples Party and General Pervez Musharraf in 2007.
There is speculation that Zardari,with his back to the wall,might want to unseat the judges whom he had restored in 2009 after a popular protest. As rumours swirled around Islamabad last week that the government was issuing an executive order to that effect,the judges sat through the night demanding a written denial from Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. Zardari is also facing fire from his political flanks. In a London press conference on Monday,former prime minister and the chief of the Pakistan Muslim League,Nawaz Sharif demanded that Zardari return the looted millions and apologise to the nation.
In Karachi,renewed ethnic violence between the Pashtuns and the Mohajirs is raising questions about the PPP governments ability to maintain peace. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement,which represents the Mohajirs and has been a partner for the PPP,is threatening to walk out of the coalition if the PPP does not act.
After the floods the economic situation in Pakistan has worsened and the government has little room left for financial manoeuvre. International assistance following the floods has been way below what was expected,and all the macroeconomic indicators are shaky.
General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani,who holds the most important job in Pakistan as the army chief,continues to deny that he wants to take charge. He is certainly pressing Zardari to get his act together and start by dropping a few ministers from the cabinet. With Zardari either unwilling or unable to reorganise the front office of the Pakistani state,it is probably when and not if Kayani chooses to lower the boom on Zardari.
Strategic Dialogue
The third round of the US-Pakistan strategic dialogue in Washington this week will see some intense bargaining between the Obama administration and the Pakistan army. The growing bitterness between the two was reflected in Rawalpindis decision earlier this month to close down the Khyber Pass after NATO helicopter attacks across the Durand Line killed a few Pakistani troops.
Having apologised for the attacks in order to get the Pakistan army to reopen the Khyber,the Obama administration is now pressing Rawalpindi to launch the long-awaited military operations in North Waziristan against Al-Qaeda and other militant outfits holed out there.
After a meeting of the so-called Troika General Kayani,President Zardari and Premier Gilani last weekend,Pakistan insisted that the operations will be launched only on the basis of Islamabads own judgement,priorities and the national interest. This,of course,is code for saying the US must offer better incentives for Pakistan to act.
Kayanis List
General Kayani is flying to Washington to oversee the bargaining with the Obama administration. The last time he was in Washington for the first round of the strategic dialogue,Kayani had left a long wishlist with the White House.
Among the many demands were the transfer of drone technology to the Pakistan army and the immediate release of funds to reimburse the Pakistani operations in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. The Obama administration had begun to hold back these funds as leverage against Rawalpindi. The army also wants the United States to give Pakistan a nuclear deal of the kind negotiated with India during 2005-08. Rawalpindi would also like to see President Obama take up the Kashmir question during his visit to India.
While it cant meet all of Pakistans demands,the Obama administration is said to be readying a new package of military assistance that will allow Kayani to buy new American arms and strengthen the armys counter-insurgency capability.
raja.mohan@expressindia.com
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