The Department of Food and Public Distribution (DoF&PD), in particular the Food Corporation of India (FCI), must have heaved a sigh of relief that the procurement of wheat so far has crossed 20 million tonnes (MT), a notch higher than last year. Three states — Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh — have contributed more than 98 per cent to the central pool. Will the FCI be able to procure 34 MT as estimated at the beginning of the season? Having recently visited Punjab and Madhya Pradesh, my assessment is that the overall procurement of wheat will stop anywhere between 25 to 30 MT.
In Khanna market in Punjab, which is supposed to be Asia’s largest grain market, almost 80 per cent of the purchases are being made by private trade.
Unseasonal rains have surely damaged the quality of grain in many pockets, and accordingly FCI has relaxed its quality parameters to accommodate lustre loss or shrivelled grain, etc for procurement. The FCI hopes to procure at least 25 MT, which is sufficient for its public distribution system (PDS) needs. In any case, the corporation has more than comfortable rice stocks that can provide ample cushion to substitute rice for wheat, if and when the need arises.
There is, however, uncertainty about wheat production estimate this year, as was last year. Earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoA&FW) had estimated 112 MT of wheat production. But after unseasonal rains, the revised estimate is yet to come. Punjab, which seems to have faced quite a rough weather just before the harvest time, is also in the process of estimating losses. But our interaction with Punjab Agriculture University (PAU) and several market functionaries and farmers have given us the impression that production of wheat this year is higher than last year, notwithstanding the unseasonal rains.
No wonder, Punjab will be the biggest contributor to wheat procurement. Uttar Pradesh remains a mystery, which produces almost double the amount of wheat (about 35 MT) than Punjab (about 18 MT). UP is estimated to procure 3.5 MT of wheat, but so far it has procured a meagre 0.12 MT. Unless it brings a surprise in May and June, the overall wheat procurement may stop well short of even 30 MT.
In any case, there was much to learn from Punjabi farmers during our visit. Those who had done zero tillage, and had mulched paddy straw at the time of sowing wheat through smart happy seeders, their wheat crop was standing tall even in gusty winds. Progressive farmers like Pavitar Singh Pangli in Ludhiana were expecting a yield of 24 quintals/acre (almost 6 tonnes/ha). But many others, whose crops were lodged due to heavy rains, were expecting much lower yields. Overall, as PAU Vice Chancellor, Satbir Singh Gosal and his team of experts told us that on an average, Punjab will get about 20 quintals/acre.
Mulching of paddy straw acts as a magic, and also increases organic carbon in the soil. This is also being demonstrated on the fields of Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA) in Ladhowal, Ludhiana, where a passionate Uttam Kumar was taking care of his wheat crop ready for harvesting. Incidentally, this technology can be a good case for India to show to the agriculture group of G20. PAU and BISA can lead in this as a voice of the South.
At the centre, DoF&PD needs to be complimented for organising a “Chintan Shivir” under the leadership of Secretary Sanjeev Chopra. One of the topics to focus on was how to leverage PDS to offer more nutritious food and also help make Indian agriculture more climate resilient. That’s a great vision to be lauded. The obvious answer, to my understanding, would be to encourage introduction of more nutritious food in PDS that is also climate resilient. Millets, pulses, oilseeds would fit very well in achieving these twin objectives. Also, one should not hesitate to go beyond these field crops and offer even milk and eggs. But there are several operational challenges to provide a steady flow of these more nutritious foods.
One of the suggestions I can make to DoF&PD is to upgrade and declare at least 10 per cent of their five lakh odd fair price shops as Nutritious Food Hubs (NFHs). These NFHs will have fortified, including bio-fortified, rice and wheat, millets, pulses, oilseeds (especially soyabean products with 40 per cent protein), fortified milk and edible oils, eggs, etc. The consumers of PDS list may be given electronic vouchers (like an e-food coupon in a food court) that can be charged by the government three or four times a year. Our back of the envelope calculation shows that a family of 4.5 members currently gets a food subsidy of around Rs 8,000/year through rice and wheat under PM-Garib Kalyan Yojana. This amount can be loaded on e-vouchers of targeted beneficiaries. The NFHs would be upgraded with government assistance. It would create a demand for more diversified and nutritious food from the masses.
But then the procurement of rice would have to be capped, starting with districts where the water table has been depleting alarmingly. For example, Sangrur in Punjab has witnessed a fall of groundwater level by more than 25 meters during 2000-2019. Farmers of such districts could be incentivised to grow millets, pulses, oilseeds, etc that are climate smart, use much less water and fertilisers, thus saving power and fertiliser subsidies. The Centre and the states need to join hands to give a special package for carbon credits for growing such crops. Our rough calculations suggest that farmers can be rewarded about Rs 10,000/acre (to be shared equally by the Centre and the state), as these crops would save that much fertiliser subsidy of the Centre and power subsidy of the state. The Chintan Shivir of DoF&PD will have a long lasting effect on the agri-food system only if such ideas are further explored for rolling out on 50,000 nutritious food hubs.
Gulati is Distinguished Professor at ICRIER. Views are personal