Opinion A self-limiting move
On Pakistan, indications are that Modi government’s learning curve could be steep and costly.
The NDA government’s decision to cancel the foreign secretary-level talks with Pakistan scheduled for next week underscores once again the accident-prone nature of the bilateral relationship. It fits in with the long-established pattern in India-Pakistan diplomacy. “On-again, off-again” has been the defining feature of the dialogue between Delhi and Islamabad for more than a quarter of a century. The dialogue has been subject to unpredictable mood swings of the leaders in both capitals. The need to posture before domestic political constituencies has often pushed them to suspend formal conversations. The dialogue has been vulnerable to actions by one side that were wrongly presumed to be below the other’s threshold of tolerance. There were times when one or the other set preconditions for the dialogue.
Yet, there never has been an extended period during the last three decades when there was no dialogue between India and Pakistan. Despite enduring political and military tensions, Delhi and Islamabad have found there is no alternative to keeping on talking. The introduction of nuclear weapons in the arsenals of both countries has meant that they couldn’t afford not to have continuous political communication. Delhi’s decision to call off the talks this time appears different from the previous ruptures in the bilateral engagement. In the past, Delhi suspended talks in the aftermath of a major terror attack on India, but resumed them after a reasonable interval. Delhi’s justification for the latest move has ostensibly come from the Pakistan high commissioner’s step to meet separatist leaders from Kashmir. The NDA government has argued that this amounts to unacceptable interference in India’s internal affairs by Pakistan.
In the recent past, however, both the UPA and the NDA governments were willing to overlook Pakistan’s interaction with Kashmiri separatist leaders in the interest of sustaining a dialogue with Islamabad. It is not known whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi has thought through the implications of a unilateral attempt to change the terms of the dialogue. There is nothing on the ground to suggest that the balance of power between India and Pakistan has tilted so much in Delhi’s favour that Islamabad will accept new terms of engagement. There is no escaping the fact that this decision, while winning enthusiastic endorsement from sections of the political class and the strategic community, significantly limits Delhi’s own flexibility in dealing with Pakistan. Renewed tensions with Pakistan will invite international attention to Kashmir and offers from all and sundry to mediate between Delhi and Islamabad. If Delhi has acted in a fit of anger, Modi’s diplomatic learning curve would have to be rather steep. And for sure, it will be costly.
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