Opinion A lopsided contest

Madhya Pradesh has a history of assembly elections fought between the BJP and the Congress. The BJP emerged victorious in the last two elections,but before that,the Congress was in power for 10 years. The BJP’s second victory in 2008,when it secured 143 seats out of 230,has spelled trouble for the Congress. Shivraj Singh Chouhan,the BJP chief minister,has positioned himself smartly in public,while the Congress’s state unit has witnessed infighting among top leaders,with several senior leaders unwilling to forego their own interests to put the party’s interests first. As a result,the Congress has seemed unable to take advantage of anti-incumbency,which could have otherwise played a critical role in determining electoral outcomes.

It would be useful here to consider MP’s demographic profile. MP is primarily a tribal state,with the general and OBC categories constituting 52 per cent of the electorate,and Scheduled Castes and Tribes and minorities making up another 45 per cent. Politics centred around the tribal or Dalit identities has not been able to establish a foothold in the state. Moreover,the Congress has failed to strategically position itself as the party of the marginalised,and the Bahujan Samaj Party has limited presence in SC-dominated areas. Though the Congress claims to have locked down the tribal vote,the BJP appears to have significantly eroded its base in these constituencies. In the 2008 election,out of the 35 constituencies reserved for SCs,the BJP won 25 while the Congress only managed to win nine seats. Similarly,out of the 47 seats reserved for STs,the BJP won 28.

The Congress’s failure to properly position itself could be considered something of a missed opportunity. For,while the ruling party’s performance on indicators like road construction speed,power generation capacity and food procurement has been quite good,its decade in power has not been characterised by particularly good governance or improved social sector performance. For instance,MP has high rates of malnutrition,and reports of farmers’ suicides continue to appear. Public health infrastructure and hospital facilities have not satisfactorily improved. Census 2011 data reveals that 86 per cent of the state’s rural population still defecates in the open. There have also been several charges of corruption directed against the state bureaucracy.

Despite all this,the BJP has managed to salvage its public image by both reacting to these criticisms and on the strength of the chief minister’s personal appeal. It suspended the bureaucrats accused of corruption,while Chouhan has carefully calibrated his image as that of a next-door neighbour and ideal family man. Besides,he initiated regular communication with voters through yatras and maha panchayats with the leaders and representatives of different occupational classes,such as farmers,rickshaw pullers,etc. The Congress was too organisationally weak to regularly connect with voters over the last five years,and looks to have paid the price. In the assembly,however,the party did attempt to raise issues on the alleged corruption and misgovernance. But it could not sufficiently mobilise public opinion against the ruling government. Then,it has also been unable to leverage the success of Centrally sponsored schemes like MGNREGS,because the state government has been able to take credit for their implementation.

One of the more important developments in the upcoming assembly elections is the emergence of a young voting public. Estimates suggest that around 1.12 crore voters will be added to the rolls this time round,of whom 85 lakh will be first-time young voters. Both parties need to recognise that this demographic has different development priorities and aspirations.

A Congress victory would indicate that mass contact and image-building cannot substitute for actual development. On the other hand,if the BJP forms a government for the third straight time,it would be a win for Chouhan’s accessible style of leadership and for the party’s organisational strength.

The writer is executive director of Samarthan-Centre for

Development Support,Bhopal