Opinion A house on shaky foundations

The arithmetic of the hung parliament,and the reluctance of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (UCPN-M) to cooperate with him,makes the situation difficult. Prime Minister Nepal has to pass a thanks motion to the president’s address to the house (yet to take place),and the annual budget passed by July 16,but that cannot happen without the support of other big political parties,including the Maoists.

But the UCPN-M,which is the largest party in the house,will not transact any business until the PM resigns. Given Nepal’s fractious politics of the past four years,it has been hard to keep the house peaceful and orderly and take important legislative decisions. To avoid budgetary business being stalled through disruptions and adjournments,the government is contemplating bringing it in through ordinance.

The constituent assembly,which functions as parliament,has come under severe attack from all sides (except political parties) for having extended its own life by a year after it failed to deliver the constitution. Its moral and political authority have been questioned. What’s more,the cabinet recently put an additional Rs. 720 million at the disposal of house members ostensibly to carry out developmental projects,but also being seen as a crude and ineffectual move to buy support during the passage of the budget.

With the legitimacy of the house and the government under cloud,and the failure of political parties to forge a way out, the peace process is under severe strain. This has been exacerbated by the UCPN-M signalling that an armed movement remains an open option if leadership is not handed over to them.

UCPN-M chief Prachanda,who proved to be an astute manipulator during the past four years of open politics,managed to again defeat party rival Baburam Bhattarai. Bhattarai was forced to publicly state that he would not be a prime ministerial candidate,should the Maoists head the proposed national unity government. With Bhattarai’s withdrawal,it falls on Prachanda to either head the new government,or have a decisive say in the choice of PM and composition of the government.

During the UCPN-M’s recent politburo meeting,Bhattarai was projected as an “Indian stooge” and the majority of the 40-plus members felt that India was an “enemy” to be fought and exposed. Prachanda himself asked Bhattarai not to stake claim for the future leadership,because he remains under a cloud of suspicion,and Bhattarai complied. The Maoists have struck a stridently anti-Indian posture after May 2009,when Prachanda quit as prime minister and blamed India for behaving like a colonial power with Nepal. This perception has only deepened within the UCPN-M,which has larger implications in Nepal. The party presents other political forces as “anti-national” and,by extension,as “allies of India”.

Based on those assumptions,the UCPN-M has managed to win over some European countries that seek greater play in Nepal. These countries view the Maoists as a key force for Nepal’s stability,and a potential strategic partner in the future. Nepal’s neighbours,China and India,pursue an approach marked mostly by competition and cooperation,but both resent the EU’s enlarged interests. China is especially hostile,as it sees them as allies of the Free Tibet movement. The EU also acted as a pressure group to extend the constituent assembly’s tenure.

And all these tensions are surfacing at a time when the house’s legitimacy has never appeared more fragile,and it is unclear if Nepal’s political actors have the ability to pull the country out of the crisis. The failure to justify the house’s tenure extension,and making the government pass the budget by ordinance will further discredit political parties and the constitutional process. It will take Nepal to the pre-April 2006 confusion,a state without a king. But will the political leaders who defaulted in their promise to bring peace,consolidate democracy and steer the economy,pay the price for it? That remains to be assessed.

yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com