Yet another yatra

L.K. Advani8217;s reappointment as president of the Bharatiya Janata Party is the biggest challenge of his political career. The BJP is hoping that the architect of BJP8217;s transformation from a marginal party to a veritable mass movement can help revive its flagging fortunes. But the obstacles are considerable. Although the BJP is by no means a spent force, defeat has exposed its ideological and organisational disarray.

Its immediate challenge is to slow down its slide by registering an impressive showing in assembly elections in Haryana and Bihar. Beyond that, it will look to revive its fortunes in UP. But these are the three states where the vacuum in the state level leadership and ideological confusion is the greatest. Its recent defeats have ensured that it is not going to be easy to attract new constituents to its fold. Its main strategy is likely to be to galvanise its base, and infuse energy in the party organisation. But this runs two risks. On the one hand, energising its base will require the BJP to turn to a more hardline ideology. But this will effectively put a stop to Advani8217;s fleeting attempts to overcome his association with the demolition of the Babri Masjid. Advani, the Party Leader, will find it more difficult to play Advani, the Statesman and potential Prime Minister. On the other hand, it is not clear that elements of a mass agitation to galvanise the cadres are in place. The success of hardline ideologies require a framing context, a palpable threat from which it draws political capital. Unless terrorism or violence gives it aid and succour, it will not be easy for the BJP to tap into a politics of paranoia. A rath yatra style agitation will not be easy: while there may be support for a temple at Ayodhya, the enthusiasm for an agitation seems diminished. And with rival parties in power 8212; both at the Centre and the state 8212; a mass agitation campaign is unlikely to gain momentum. Elements of the BJP will attempt to create the kind of confrontational environment that gave BJP such immense momentum in the past. But Advani8217;s dilemma is that he will be damned if they succeed and damned if they don8217;t.

Advani assumes the presidency at a moment that is not exactly propitious for the BJP. Of course he must be hoping that the Congress will make the kind of mistakes that makes its secularism appear cynical to the public at large and gives the BJP an opening. Otherwise the work of restoring ideological coherence, creating organisational efficiency and crafting an imaginative electoral strategy is not going to be easy. The country is waiting to see what metal this supposed 8220;lauh purusha8221; is truly made of.