Year to the ground

Every year can be guaranteed to repeat one lesson for political parties in electoral democracies: humbling follows hubris. The BJP learnt this in 2004, in that famously upset general election result. The Congress and Lalu Yadav, on a high after the 2004 verdict, learnt this in 2005, when they separately and in joint ventures tried to tailor popular mandates in Bihar and Jharkhand. As 2006 ends, it is the Left8217;s turn to count the costs of political arrogance. Marxist leaders, and indeed others, may dismiss this as untenable. After all, Bengal was retained in triumph and Kerala won back in style this year. At the Centre, the CPM is consulted even on foreign policy. With 60 MPs, two major states and so much influence, where is the question of somebody baking a humble pie, far less Marxists eating it?

Look again. In Kerala, V.S. Achuthanandan has declared war on cola, fiscal responsibility and multilateral lending agencies in the name of pure Marxism. The CPM8217;s central leadership seem disinclined to discipline him or, the better option, replace him. At the same time, the state party is presiding over and flirting with hardline Islamic politics. George Bush isn8217;t exactly shivering. But Kerala8217;s voters may be concerned. State politics is increasingly becoming performance-driven. That is of course why Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee won so handsomely in Bengal. But, and as one of our oped columnists explain today, Bhattacharjee is not fighting Mamata Banerjee over Singur and the direction of his economic policy. He8217;s fighting his own party. If in Bengal and Kerala, the CPM can8217;t be consistently modern, and given that state politics has a large influence on national elections, what are the implications for the party8217;s electoral fortunes in the next general elections?

This is especially relevant because the Left8217;s efforts to extend its base has been unimpressive. In UP, Mulayam Singh Yadav has been courted assiduously by the Left. But the canny Yadav is more intrigued by the possibility of the BJP rediscovering some of its UP touch. The third front failed in Assam. In Bihar, the two Marxist parties don8217;t see eye to eye. In Punjab, the Akalis are with the BJP and the Congress doesn8217;t need the Left. In the rest of India, the Left still doesn8217;t matter except in small pockets like in Andhra. Neither is India impressed by the Left-sponsored strikes this year saw. Given all that, and given how genuine the PM was in supporting the CPM on Singur and how low-key the Bengal Congress has been, one has to ask what does the CPM think it is doing by blocking every other reform at the Centre and joining anti-reform brigades in other states, some of which are Congress-ruled. The obstreperousness is born out of political hubris. The Left should know what usually follows.