Whowonit 8212; Plot takes twists and turns

The recount in Florida is turning out to be even more spine-tingling for those with a taste for political thrillers. Both George Bush and Al Gore are gaining votes, Gore more than Bush. That has put the vice-president within 1,000 votes of Bush with 32 of the 67 counties reporting.

It could mean the election could be decided on absentee ballots. Florida8217;s electoral law allows 10 days for the ballots to arrive as long as they arepostmarked before election day. The ballots number some 2,500, and since most of them are from overseas military personnel, the Republicans are confident a majority will be stamped Bush.

But this election has been so full of surprises that no one is betting the farm in it.

Besides, even if Bush wins Florida and its 25 electoral vote, the assumption that he will have a smooth passage to Presidency is premised on the Gorecamp acquiescing to the verdict. No one is betting the farm on this either.

Even if Gore agrees, other individuals are mounting a legal challenge charging irregularities, thus throwing the ball into a court.

The focus of legal attention now is ballots in Florida8217;s heavily Democratic Palm Beach County. Because of the way the ballot was designed, Goreofficials and media reports say hundreds of voters may have mistakenly cast their votes for Conservative candidate Pat Buchanan when they intended it for the vice-president.

The fact is Buchanan did receive an extraordinarily large number of votes about 3000, six times more than what he averaged in neighboring counties in what is clearly a Democratic stronghold.

According to a Reuters report The Miami Herald said it had done a statistical analysis that found Palm Beach County8217;s vote was 8220;a clear anomaly.8221; Buchanan had 3,407 votes there, far more than in any other Florida county.

The Herald said if voting patterns statewide had held in Palm Beach County, Buchanan would have received just 1,000 votes. If the other 2,400 had gone to Gore, it would have been enough to swing the election, according to the initial count.

Too bad, says the Bush camp. The ballot design was within legal parameters, a sample was distributed earlier, and if Gore voters made a mistake, itacirc;euro;trade;s anissue that cannot be remedied now. Any thought of a re-election, even in just Palm Beach County, would open a whole can of worms.

And so it continues, a tangled skein of electoral, political, legal, and moral issues.

Meanwhile, the candidates themselves are being circumspect 8212; Al Gore more so. para The vice-president said the election mystery must be resolved 8220;deliberately and without any rush to judgment.8221; Bush urged a speedy resolution and said, 8220;When that happens I8217;ll be the president-elect.8221;

Both camps sent representatives to Florida to monitor the recount. Gore sent campaign chairman Bill Daley and former Secretary of State Warren Christopher. Bush8217;s dispatched former Secretary of State JamesBaker.

Baker and Christopher were back-to-back secretaries of state under George Bush Sr and Bill Clinton respectively, and although men of integrity, they are not exactly fond of each other.

Meanwhile, one man has come out smelling of roses in this situation. Speaking with almost a saintly glow around him, outgoing President Bill Clinton said: 8220;The American people have now spoken, but it8217;s going totake a little while to determine exactly what they said.8221;

Clinton said he had spoken to Gore over telepone after all the confusion began and the two had laughed over 8220;the unpredictability of life.8221;

With his name not on some ballot for the first time in more than two decades 8212; although his wife carries on the legacy 8212; Clinton said he is a 8220;fascinated observer now.8221; Referring to the media having declared him alame-duck president, he said he had 8220;another ten weeks to quack.8221;

It may take that to diagnose the unexpected fever that has struck American democracy. In fact, the first landmark date now is December 18, bywhich time, as someone remarked, 8220;the elections willbe over and the politics will begin.8221;

Some pundits are already speculating about a delicious scenario whenstate electors gather to formally cast their votes tothe candidate who has won their state.

Electors are carefully chosen party faithfuls who are expected to cast their votes to whichever party has won that state. But there is very little in the rule book to prevent faithless electors from voting anywaythey want.

If George Bush wins Florida, he is entitled to the 25 electoral votes to reach the 271 mark but three faithless electors could easily scuttle it by defecting if they feel strongly about say the legitimacy or validity ofthe whole process.

Twenty-six states have no legal prohibition against 8220;faithless electors.8221; Florida requires its electors to swear an oath of support to their party8217;s candidate, but prescribes no penalty for those who might break the oath. There have been instances of faithless electors before, but none that made a crucial difference as it would now.

What could prolong the agony
Counting error: In the recount, both Bush and Gore are gaining votes, Gore more than Bush. That has put the vice-president within 1,000 votes of Bush with 32 of the 67 counties reporting.
Postal ballots: These number some 2,500 and since most of them are from overseas military personnel, the Republicans are confident. But given the twists and turns, no one is sure.
Legal challenge: Even if Bush wins Florida, the Gore camp may not silently accept the verdict. And even if Gore agrees, others have begun mounting legal challenges.
Ballot design: Gore8217;s supporters argue that in Florida8217;s heavily Democratic Palm Beach County, the way the ballot was designed could have confused people to mistakenly vote for Conservative candidate Pat Buchanan. The fact is here Buchanan did get six times more than what he averaged in neighbouring counties.
Faithless electors: Electors are carefully chosen party faithfuls who are expected to cast their votes to whichever party has won that state. If Bush wins, three faithless electors could easily scuttle it by defecting.