Tags:
Journalism of Courage
Several senior leaders of the BJP have reiterated that general elections to the Lok Sabha would be on schedule in the autumn of 2004. On his part, Union Finance Minister Jaswant Singh has been emphatic in stating that he will present the Union budget on the scheduled date in February. Political pundits, however, believe that the jury is still out on that decision. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has flown away to the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Nigeria. It is unlikely that he will reveal his mind on the subject for some time since there are several political imponderables that even the currently resurgent BJP has to take into account before figuring out the pros and cons of an early election.
Finance minister Singh8217;s bravado on presenting a 8220;regular budget8221; may have been meant to suggest that there will be no political downside to the kind of exercise he has in mind. That may well be so, since he will not only be reducing tariffs but giving fiscal policy an 8220;agricultural orientation8221;, which is unlikely to cost votes. In itself the kind of budget that Singh will have to present next February need not be too harsh, even if the fiscal challenge is daunting. In fact, he may further postpone a decision on value-added taxation, given the increasing professional criticism of the idea. Expectations about the next monsoon rather than concerns about budgetary policy may finally shape the ruling party8217;s decision on the timing. The failure of the north-east monsoon and the re-emergence of the El Nino factor have raised new concerns about the next monsoon. Of course, it is far too early to make any reliable forecasts and rainfall may not be as critical a factor in shaping electoral outcomes as political alignments between various parties. However, given the fact that development issues and economic well-being have come to the fore in election campaigns, and given that the BJP may want to continue toning down its communal rhetoric, a summer election may appear more attractive to the ruling coalition than an autumn election.
